Morgan Stanley sharply raised its forecast for shipments of humanoid robots from China: what's behind the revision
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have significantly revised their forecast for shipments of humanoid robots from China for 2026. According to the latest data, the expected shipment volume has been increased from 28,000 to 50,000 units. This is already the second major revision in a short period: in January 2026, the estimate was raised from 14,000 to 28,000 units. This trend indicates a rapid acceleration in the sector's development.
Growth Drivers: Competition, Government Support, and Commercialization
The key factor behind the forecast revision was a sharp increase in the number of Chinese companies announcing plans for mass production of humanoids by the end of 2026. Among them, XPeng stands out, but the trend is widespread overall. The bank's analysts also point to three main catalysts: confirmation of the commercial applicability of the devices in real-world conditions, active government support, and optimization of supply chains.
A structural shift in the segment deserves special attention. According to Morgan Stanley estimates, the share of full-sized humanoid robots will grow from 30% in 2026 to 50% in 2027 and reach 70% by 2028. This indicates that the industry is moving from creating prototypes to scaling functional solutions capable of replacing humans in industry.
Beijing Shifts Priorities: From Shows to the Real Sector
An important signal was the decision by the Chinese government to launch a nationwide training program that shifts the focus from demonstration shows to the practical application of robots in factories, warehouses, and hospitals. This is a step toward turning humanoids from a technological curiosity into a real tool for increasing productivity.
Recall that in December 2025, home appliance manufacturer Midea Group introduced the six-armed industrial robot MIRO U, which is already planned to be deployed at a washing machine factory in Wuxi. In June 2026, Alibaba announced a set of AI models for controlling robots, calling the project a "full stack for embodied artificial intelligence." These examples confirm that China's humanoid robotics ecosystem is on the verge of mass adoption.
Expert Opinion: The sharp increase in Morgan Stanley's forecast is not just optimism, but a reflection of the real pace of industrialization in China. If humanoids were previously a subject of hype, we are now witnessing the formation of a full-fledged market with clear commercial contours. The key risk is whether the infrastructure and supply chain can withstand such explosive demand growth. However, the current trend suggests that by 2028, China will become not only the largest producer but also the main consumer of humanoid robots in the world.