By the end of June, the dollar exchange rate settled above the 77 ruble mark for the first time in a long while. The official exchange rate set by the Bank of Russia on June 30 was 77.75 rubles, and by July 3, it reached 77.92 rubles. For comparison, on May 29, the dollar was worth 71.37 rubles. The situation on P2P platforms is even more telling — for the stablecoin USDT, which is nearly equivalent to the dollar, many sellers are already asking for over 80 rubles. After a strong spring, the ruble has noticeably lost ground, and now the key question is: is this a temporary correction or the start of a sustained weakening trend?
Why the ruble began to weaken
Analyzing the current situation, I identify several fundamental factors that have coincided in time and created pressure on the Russian currency. First and foremost, this is the dynamics of oil prices. In the spring, amid the military conflict with Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a shortage of actual supplies emerged, leading to a sharp increase in the price of Russian Urals. It was this factor that kept the ruble strong. As soon as the strait was opened, the market calmed down, oil prices fell, and the ruble's key support disappeared.
The second important point is the regulator's stance. A too-strong ruble is unfavorable for the budget, as it reduces export revenues in ruble terms. Therefore, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank are deliberately allowing a controlled weakening. We see them shifting from selling currency to net buying, which creates additional demand for the dollar and the yuan.
The third factor is the behavior of exporters. They have started selling less foreign currency revenue, holding onto accumulated funds. Against the backdrop of sell-offs in ruble assets, speculators have also joined in. Thus, pressure came from two sides simultaneously: from the regulator and from external geopolitics, amplified by falling oil and a widening discount of Urals to Brent.
It is also worth noting the viewpoint that the current decline is largely artificially provoked. There was and remains an excess of foreign currency in the Russian financial system, and this excess is even growing. Since the beginning of 2025, capital outflows have been actively combated, and the withdrawal of funds has sharply decreased. Meanwhile, oil in rubles is now more expensive than the average last year, and the currency accumulated by exporters has not yet been sold off — at some point, it will flood the market, which could halt the decline.
What will happen to the exchange rate next
Opinions here diverge, and I tend to highlight two main scenarios. The first is a gradual but steady weakening. This scenario is supported by the fact that in the third quarter, the Central Bank reduces currency sales, while external risks increase. Most factors are working against the ruble, and the effect of falling oil will only gain strength by August. The target is 80-84 rubles per dollar by the end of the year.
The second scenario is artificial panic that is contained. Factors are changing rapidly, and although an exchange rate of 80-85 rubles is quite possible, betting on this scenario without caution is not advisable. If the panic is not stopped, the entire economy could be at risk.
What an investor should do
In this situation, I recommend adhering to a diversification strategy. Holding all funds in one thing is risky. The optimal option is to distribute capital among several currencies (at least the dollar and the yuan) and instruments. Part of the funds can be gradually converted into foreign currency, especially if there are large purchases of imported goods or trips abroad ahead. Another part should be held in bonds, and yet another part left in ruble deposits if the rate is suitable.
I do not advise most people to speculate on the exchange rate. For an ordinary person, foreign currency is needed only for trips or large purchases. Playing on exchange rate fluctuations is not a good idea for investing. Moreover, any mass flight into foreign currency undermines the economy of one's own country.
My conclusion as an analyst: the current weakening of the ruble is not an accident, but the result of several fundamental factors coinciding: falling oil, a shift in Central Bank policy, and the behavior of exporters. In the short term, pressure will persist, and an exchange rate of 80-85 rubles per dollar by the end of summer is a quite realistic scenario. However, I do not rule out that the regulator may intervene and adjust the situation if panic gets out of control. Investors should remain calm, diversify their assets, and not give in to emotional decisions.