By the end of June, the dollar confidently surpassed the 77 ruble mark for the first time in a long while. The official Central Bank exchange rate on June 30 was 77.75 rubles, and by July 3 it had reached 77.92 rubles. For comparison, as recently as May 29, the American currency was worth 71.37 rubles. The cryptocurrency market, acting as a sensitive barometer, registers an even deeper decline: on P2P platforms, the stablecoin USDT, which usually trades at parity with the dollar, is already being offered at a price above 80 rubles. After a confident spring, the ruble has noticeably lost ground, and now the key question for the market is: is this a temporary correction or the beginning of a prolonged weakening trend?

Having analyzed the current situation, I have identified several fundamental factors putting pressure on the Russian currency.

Fundamental Reasons for the Weakening

The main blow to the ruble came from the situation in commodity markets. In the spring, geopolitical tensions around Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz created a shortage of actual supplies, which sharply raised prices for Russian Urals oil. This factor served as the main support for the ruble. As soon as the strait was opened, the market calmed down, oil began to fall in price, and the key anchor of stability disappeared.

However, this is just the tip of the iceberg. A whole complex of reasons has emerged:

  • Decline in export revenue: In addition to falling oil prices, the discount of Urals to Brent has increased, reducing foreign currency inflows.
  • Change in policy of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank: Regulators have shifted from selling foreign currency to net buying it, removing a significant portion of support from the ruble.
  • Speculative pressure: Amid the sell-off of ruble-denominated assets, speculators joined the game, strengthening the downward trend.
  • Accumulation of currency by exporters: Companies are holding onto their foreign currency earnings, not rushing to sell them, creating additional supply deficit in the market.
  • Budgetary interests: A weak ruble is objectively beneficial for filling the budget, as it increases the ruble equivalent of export revenues.

Some analysts also point to the artificial nature of the current panic, believing that it will be contained by the authorities, as further weakening threatens the stability of the entire economy.

Exchange Rate Forecasts: No Consensus

There is no unified opinion in the market regarding the future trajectory of the ruble. Scenarios range from gradual weakening to stabilization.

The most likely scenario, in my view, is a gradual but steady weakening. The effect of falling oil prices and the shift in monetary authorities' policy will intensify. The target for the end of summer appears to be the range of 80-82 rubles per dollar, and by the end of the year — 82-84 rubles. Other experts, on the contrary, believe that the current decline is largely artificial and will be halted, not forecasting further significant weakening. A third group calls for not making forecasts at all, noting that factors are changing rapidly, and while a rate of 80-85 rubles is possible, it is not a basis for a bet.

Strategy for the Investor: Diversification or Patriotism?

In this situation, expert opinions are divided into two camps.

Proponents of diversification recommend gradually transferring part of savings into foreign currency — dollars or yuan. This can be done through cash, bank deposits, or foreign currency bonds. The idea is not to put all eggs in one basket, especially amid growing external risks.

Opponents of moving into currency argue their position by saying that an ordinary person needs foreign currency only for foreign trips or large purchases of imports. Playing on exchange rate fluctuations is not the best investment idea. Moreover, each such move undermines the economy of one's own country.

My expert assessment: In the current conditions, a complete refusal of currency diversification is an unjustifiably high risk. The ruble is under pressure from a complex of fundamental factors that are unlikely to disappear in the near future. The optimal strategy is a reasonable allocation of assets: keep part of the funds in high-yield ruble instruments (for example, OFZ bonds), and part in foreign currency (dollars or yuan) for hedging risks. I would not advise anyone to speculate on the exchange rate, trying to catch the bottom or peak — that is the domain of professionals with a high risk tolerance. Keeping 100% of funds in anything today is too risky.