By the end of June, the dollar firmly settled above the 77 ruble mark for the first time in a long while. The official exchange rate of the Bank of Russia on June 30 was 77.75 rubles, and by July 3 it rose to 77.92 rubles. For comparison: on May 29, the dollar cost 71.37 rubles. The cryptocurrency market is already pricing in an even weaker ruble — on P2P platforms, many sellers are offering USDT for over 80 rubles. After a strong spring, the ruble has noticeably lost ground, and now the main question is: is this a short breather or the beginning of a prolonged decline?

I have analyzed the current situation and identified the key factors that led to the weakening of the Russian currency, as well as assessed scenarios for the further movement of the exchange rate.

Why the ruble began to weaken

The set of reasons is roughly the same among all analysts, but the emphasis varies. The main drivers of the weakening:

  • Oil has become cheaper. In the spring, due to the military conflict with Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a shortage of actual supplies arose, and Russian Urals sharply rose in price. As soon as the strait was opened, the market calmed down, prices went down — and the main support for the ruble disappeared.
  • Exporters are selling less currency. They are holding onto accumulated revenue, in no hurry to enter the market with sales.
  • The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank have changed their vector. Previously, they sold currency, supporting the ruble, but now they have switched to net purchases, which creates additional pressure.
  • Speculators and sell-offs of ruble assets. Amid uncertainty, investors are actively getting rid of ruble instruments, intensifying the decline.
  • A weak ruble is beneficial for the budget. The weakening of the national currency increases ruble revenues from exports, allowing the authorities to deliberately allow a controlled decline in the exchange rate.

It is worth noting separately that the currency accumulated by exporters has not yet been sold off — at some point it may flood the market, which could temporarily strengthen the ruble. However, currently, most factors are working against it.

What will happen to the exchange rate next

Expert opinions are divided. I see two main scenarios:

Scenario of gradual weakening: the ruble will continue to weaken by the end of summer to 80–82 rubles, and by the end of the year — to 82–84 rubles. This is not a temporary pullback, but a return to real value against the backdrop of falling oil and changes in Central Bank policy. The effect of lower oil prices will only gain strength by August.

Scenario of artificial panic: the current drawdown is largely created artificially — through speculation and changes in signals from the regulator. In this case, the panic will be contained, and there will be no further significant weakening. The entire economy will be at risk if the exchange rate goes above 85 rubles.

It is important to understand: factors change rapidly. An exchange rate of 80–85 rubles is quite possible, but betting on such a scenario without considering geopolitics and oil prices is risky.

What an investor should do

In this situation, I recommend adhering to a diversification strategy. Keeping all funds in one currency is risky. The optimal approach:

  • Convert part of the funds into foreign currency: dollars or yuan. This can be done through cash, a bank deposit, or foreign currency bonds. If the US Federal Reserve tightens policy, the dollar may be stronger than other world currencies in the coming quarters.
  • Keep another part in ruble bonds with acceptable yields, if rates allow.
  • Leave the remaining part in ruble deposits for current needs.

It is not worth moving entirely into foreign currency — this undermines the economy of one's own country. But sitting entirely in rubles, ignoring current risks, is also shortsighted. I would not advise most retail investors to speculate on the exchange rate.

My conclusion: the ruble will remain under pressure at least until the end of summer. The key triggers are oil price dynamics and Central Bank actions. Diversification between the ruble, dollar, and yuan is the most sensible strategy for preserving capital in the current conditions.