At the end of June, the dollar strengthened above the 77 ruble mark for the first time in a long period. The official exchange rate of the Bank of Russia on June 30 was 77.75 rubles, and on July 3 it was already 77.92 rubles. For comparison, on May 29, the dollar was worth 71.37 rubles. The cryptocurrency market, traditionally an indicator of sentiment, signals an even weaker ruble: on P2P platforms, many sellers are already asking more than 80 rubles for USDT. After a confident spring, the ruble has noticeably lost ground, and now the key question for the market is whether this is a temporary correction or the beginning of a sustained weakening trend?
Why the ruble began to weaken
An analysis of the current situation reveals a complex of factors that collectively put pressure on the Russian currency. The dynamics of oil prices come to the forefront. In the spring, against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a shortage of actual supplies emerged, leading to a sharp rise in the price of Russian Urals. It was expensive oil that served as the main anchor for the ruble. As soon as the situation normalized and oil prices began to decline, this key support disappeared.
At the same time, the policy of the monetary authorities changed. The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation shifted from selling currency to net buying it, creating additional demand for the dollar and euro on the domestic market. Exporters, in turn, reduced the volume of foreign currency earnings they sold, preferring to hold onto accumulated funds. Speculative sell-offs of ruble assets added to the pressure.
It is also important to note a structural factor: an excessively strong ruble is objectively disadvantageous for the federal budget, as it reduces the ruble equivalent of export revenues. Therefore, it can be assumed that a certain degree of weakening of the national currency is managed and even desired by the authorities. However, one should not discount the significant volume of foreign currency accumulated by exporters, which could at any moment flood the market, providing support to the ruble.
Exchange rate forecasts: consensus and disagreements
Opinions on further dynamics diverge. The dominant scenario suggests a gradual but steady weakening of the ruble. Targets for the end of summer are 80-82 rubles per dollar, and by the end of the year, 82-84 rubles. This forecast is based on the continuation of current trends: falling oil prices, reduced currency interventions by the Central Bank, and growing external risks.
There is also an alternative point of view, according to which the current decline is largely artificial and triggered by panic. Proponents of this approach are confident that the regulator has sufficient tools to curb panic demand and stabilize the exchange rate, and they do not expect further significant weakening.
Be that as it may, most analysts agree that fundamental factors are currently working against the ruble, and a scenario with an exchange rate of 80-85 rubles per dollar in the coming months is quite realistic.
What should an investor do: two strategies
Under the current conditions, experts are divided into two camps. The first recommends diversification and a partial shift into foreign currency. The optimal instruments here might not be cash dollars, but foreign currency bonds or deposits, which provide at least nominal income. Holding all funds in rubles is now risky, especially if there are plans for large purchases of imported goods or foreign travel.
The second camp, on the contrary, urges refraining from chasing foreign currency. The argument is simple: for an ordinary person without specific foreign currency expenses, playing on exchange rate fluctuations is a lottery, not an investment. Moreover, a mass shift into foreign currency undermines the national economy. From this perspective, it is more reasonable to maintain ruble liquidity in deposits with an adequate interest rate.
Cryptalist's Comment: As a cryptocurrency market analyst, I see that the premium of USDT over the official dollar exchange rate on P2P platforms is one of the most accurate indicators of real demand for currency and panic sentiment. As long as this spread persists, pressure on the ruble will remain high. However, for a long-term investor, the current situation is more of a reason for balanced diversification than for impulsive actions. Fundamentally, the ruble remains hostage to oil market conditions and fiscal policy, and any short-term movements should be viewed through this lens.