At the end of June, the dollar strengthened above the 77 ruble mark for the first time in a long while. The official exchange rate of the Bank of Russia on June 30 was 77.75 rubles, and on July 3 — 77.92 rubles. For comparison, on May 29, the dollar was worth 71.37 rubles. The cryptocurrency market records even weaker positions for the ruble: on P2P platforms for USDT, a stablecoin almost equal to the dollar, many sellers are already offering a rate above 80 rubles. After a strong spring, the ruble has noticeably lost ground, and now the main question is: is this a short-term correction or the beginning of a prolonged downward trend?

Why the ruble began to weaken

Analysis shows that there are several key reasons for the weakening, and they act in combination. First and foremost, it's the oil factor. In the spring, amid the military conflict with Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a shortage of actual supplies emerged, leading to a sharp rise in the price of Russian Urals. This was the main support for the ruble. As soon as the strait was opened, the market calmed down, oil prices went down, and the main driver of the ruble's strengthening disappeared.

The second important point is that a too-strong ruble is unfavorable for the budget, as it reduces export revenues in ruble terms. In this regard, in my assessment, the authorities are deliberately allowing a controlled weakening of the national currency. There is also an increase in demand for currency: exporters have started selling less of it, holding onto accumulated revenue. Amid the sell-off of ruble assets, speculators have also joined in. Pressure on the ruble is coming from two sides simultaneously: from the Central Bank and from external geopolitics, which has been amplified by the fall in oil and the widening discount of Urals to Brent.

Overall, the following key factors of the ruble's weakening can be identified:

  • Oil has become cheaper, and the support that held the ruble in the spring has disappeared;
  • Exporters are selling less currency, and are holding onto accumulated revenue for now;
  • The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank have shifted from selling currency to buying it;
  • Speculation and sell-offs of ruble assets have been added;
  • A weak ruble is beneficial for the budget.

What will happen to the exchange rate next?

Analysts' opinions here diverge. Some experts expect a gradual but steady weakening. According to their forecasts, due to the lag between the fall in oil and the exchange rate's reaction, the effect will only gain strength by August. In the third quarter, the Central Bank reduces currency sales, external risks increase — most factors are working against the ruble. Other analysts urge not to get carried away with forecasts, noting that factors change rapidly, and although a rate of 80-85 rubles is quite possible, betting on such a scenario is reckless.

There is also an opinion that the current decline will be contained, otherwise the entire economy will be at risk. In this case, no direct forecast for further weakening is given. The consolidated forecast looks like this: a gradual weakening to 80-82 rubles by the end of summer and 82-84 rubles by the end of the year.

What should an investor do

Recommendations for investors are divided into two camps. Proponents of diversification advise having assets in several currencies — at least in the yuan and the dollar. They can be stored in different ways: in cash, in a bank deposit, or in currency bonds, whose yields are nominally higher than deposit rates. If the US Federal Reserve tightens policy, the dollar could be stronger than other world currencies in the coming quarters. It is also recommended to gradually transfer part of the funds into currency — dollars or yuan, especially if large purchases lie ahead. Another part is suggested to be kept in bonds, and another part left in ruble deposits if the rate is suitable. In their opinion, sitting entirely in rubles is risky.

Opponents of moving into currency believe that an ordinary person needs currency only for trips abroad or large purchases of imported goods. Playing on exchange rate fluctuations is not the best idea for investing. Moreover, any such move undermines the economy of one's own country.

Conclusions

Analysts agree on the main point: the ruble weakened because oil became cheaper, and the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank shifted from selling currency to buying it — the spring supports for the ruble have disappeared. Beyond that, there is no unity. Some expect continued weakening (targets — 80-84 rubles), others urge not to guess, and a third group considers the current decline largely artificial and expects it to be stopped. What they all have in common is this: keeping all money in one thing is risky, and most do not advise speculating on the exchange rate.

Cryptalist's comment: The current situation in the foreign exchange market is a classic example of the struggle between fundamental factors and administrative resources. For the retail investor, the key lesson here is diversification. A complete shift into rubles or, conversely, a panicked buying of dollars are equally risky strategies. A balanced portfolio, taking into account both high-yield ruble instruments and a currency component for hedging risks, seems optimal.