At the end of June, the Russian currency broke through a psychologically important level. The official exchange rate of the Bank of Russia on June 30 was 77.75 rubles per dollar, and already on July 3 — 77.92. For comparison: on May 29, the dollar was worth 71.37 rubles. However, the cryptocurrency market and P2P platforms give an even more alarming signal: for the USDT stablecoin, many sellers are already asking for more than 80 rubles. After a confident spring strengthening, the ruble has noticeably lost ground, and now the key question is whether this is a temporary correction or the beginning of a long-term trend.
Why the ruble began to weaken
The main reasons for the weakening are obvious, although each analyst emphasizes different aspects. First of all, it is the oil factor. In the spring, due to geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf region and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a shortage of actual supplies emerged, which sharply drove up prices for Russian Urals. As soon as the strait was opened, the market calmed down, oil became cheaper, and the main support for the ruble disappeared.
The second point is that a too strong ruble is disadvantageous for the budget, as it reduces export revenues in ruble terms. The authorities, apparently, are deliberately allowing a controlled weakening. In addition, the structure of supply and demand in the market has changed: exporters began to sell less currency, holding onto accumulated revenue, while the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank switched from sales to net purchases. Against this backdrop, speculators have also joined in, increasing pressure by selling off ruble assets.
Some experts see the current decline as artificially created panic that will soon be contained. Others point to the accumulated surplus of currency in the system, which has not yet flooded the market but could do so at any moment, providing support to the ruble.
Forecasts: where the exchange rate is heading
Opinions are divided. Some analysts expect a gradual but steady weakening. According to their estimates, the effect of the drop in oil prices will gain momentum by August, and by the end of summer, the dollar could settle in the range of 80–82 rubles, and by the end of the year — 82–84. Most fundamental factors are currently working against the ruble: external risks are growing, the Central Bank is reducing currency interventions, and exporters are in no hurry to part with their foreign currency earnings.
Other specialists urge not to get carried away with forecasts, noting that factors change rapidly. A rate of 80–85 rubles is quite possible, but betting on such a scenario is risky. A third group believes the current decline is largely artificial and is confident that the panic will be stopped, otherwise the entire economy will be at risk.
What should an investor do
Advice is also divided. Some experts recommend gradually converting part of your funds into foreign currency — dollars or yuan, especially if you have major purchases or trips abroad ahead. Savings can be held in cash, deposits, or foreign currency bonds, where yields are higher than deposit rates. In their opinion, staying entirely in rubles is risky.
Other analysts believe that an ordinary person needs foreign currency only for trips abroad or purchasing imported goods. Playing on exchange rate fluctuations is not a good idea for investing. Moreover, moving into foreign currency undermines the economy of one's own country, and this should not be done.
My analysis: The current situation is a classic example of the struggle between fundamental factors and administrative regulation. Oil is getting cheaper, the budget needs a weak ruble, but panic in the market benefits no one. In my opinion, we will see a controlled weakening to 80–82 rubles by autumn, but sharp crashes should not be expected — the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance have enough tools to smooth out fluctuations. For a long-term investor, diversification between the ruble, yuan, and possibly gold seems like a reasonable strategy, but without excessive hype.