At the end of June, the dollar strengthened above the 77 ruble mark for the first time in a long while. The official exchange rate of the Bank of Russia on June 30 was 77.75 rubles, and by July 3 it was already 77.92 rubles. Just a month earlier, on May 29, the dollar was worth 71.37 rubles. The cryptocurrency market, in turn, is pricing in an even weaker ruble: on P2P platforms, for USDT — a stablecoin that is usually almost equal to the dollar — many sellers are already offering more than 80 rubles. After a strong spring, the ruble has noticeably lost ground, and now the main question is: is this a short breather or the beginning of a prolonged decline?
Why the ruble began to weaken
Analyzing the current situation, I highlight several key factors that together are putting pressure on the Russian currency. The main trigger is a correction in the oil market. In the spring, amid the military conflict with Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a shortage of actual supplies arose, leading to a sharp rise in the price of Russian Urals. This is what kept the ruble at high levels. As soon as the strait was opened, the market calmed down, oil prices went down, and the ruble's main support disappeared.
The second point I consider important is the deliberate policy of the authorities. A ruble that is too strong is disadvantageous for the budget, as it reduces export revenues in ruble terms. Therefore, we are observing a controlled weakening that is allowed by the regulator.
Furthermore, pressure is coming from two sides simultaneously. Exporters have started selling less foreign currency, holding onto accumulated revenue. Against the backdrop of sell-offs in ruble assets, speculators have also joined in. The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, in turn, have shifted from selling currency to net purchases, which also adds pressure on the ruble.
It is also worth noting that the market is now simply balancing after a strong strengthening that occurred because the state did not enter the currency market at all for several months.
Finally, I also see the factor of artificially created panic. Capital flows have changed since the beginning of 2025: outflows began to be fought, and withdrawals sharply decreased. At the same time, oil in rubles is now more expensive than on average last year, and the currency accumulated by exporters has not yet been sold off — at some point it will spill onto the market. This creates potential for a rebound.
Putting it all together, the most frequently cited reasons for the ruble's weakening are:
- Oil has become cheaper, and the support that held the ruble in the spring has disappeared;
- Exporters are selling less foreign currency and holding onto accumulated revenue;
- The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank have shifted from selling currency to buying it;
- Speculation and sell-offs of ruble assets have been added;
- A weak ruble is beneficial for the budget.
What will happen to the exchange rate next
Opinions differ here, but I highlight two main scenarios. The first is a gradual but steady weakening. A number of analysts expect that the effect of the oil price drop will only gain strength by August. They emphasize that this is not a temporary pullback, but a return of the ruble to its real value. In the third quarter, the Central Bank reduces currency sales, external risks increase — and most factors are working against the ruble.
The second scenario is that the panic will be stopped. No direct forecast for further weakening is given here, but it is noted that the entire economy would be at risk. According to them, the artificially created decline will be contained.
The summary of forecasts looks like this:
| Expert | Ruble Forecast |
|---|---|
| Alexander Peresichan | Gradual weakening; around 80-82 rubles by the end of summer, 82–84 rubles by the end of the year |
| Dmitry Alexandrov | The ruble will continue to weaken, most factors are against it |
| Igor Shimko | Does not undertake to forecast; 80-85 possible, but not a reason for a bet |
| Vladimir Levchenko | The panic will be contained; does not directly forecast further weakening |
What an investor should do
Here, experts are divided into two camps. Some recommend diversification with a currency component. They advise holding assets in several currencies — at least in yuan and dollars. They can be stored in different ways: in cash, in a bank deposit, or in currency bonds, whose yields are nominally higher than deposit rates. Others suggest gradually converting part of the funds into foreign currency, especially if large purchases lie ahead. In their opinion, sitting entirely in rubles is risky.
The opposite point of view is that an ordinary person needs foreign currency only for trips abroad or large purchases of imported goods. Playing on exchange rate fluctuations is not the best idea for investing. A harsher stance: you definitely should not move into foreign currency, because any such move undermines the economy of your own country.
Conclusions
Analysts agree on the main point: the ruble weakened due to cheaper oil and a shift in the policy of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank from selling currency to buying it — the spring supports for the ruble have disappeared. There is no consensus beyond that. Some expect continued weakening with a target of 80-84 rubles, others urge not to guess, while a third group considers the current decline largely artificial and expects it to be stopped.
What they all have in common is this: keeping all money in one thing is risky, and most do not advise speculating on the exchange rate.
My professional opinion: The current dynamics are not panic, but a natural correction after the anomalously strong ruble in the spring. Fundamentally, the ruble remains overvalued, and I expect a gradual shift into the range of 80-85 rubles by the end of the year. However, there will be no sharp crashes — the regulator has all the tools to smooth out volatility. I recommend investors remain calm and diversify their portfolio, but without fanatically buying currency at its peak.