The dollar exchange rate has, for the first time in a long while, settled above the 77 ruble mark. The official exchange rate set by the Bank of Russia for June 30 was 77.75 rubles, and by July 3, it reached 77.92 rubles. For comparison, on May 29, the dollar cost 71.37 rubles. On P2P platforms where USDT is traded, the situation is even more telling — many sellers are already asking for over 80 rubles per stablecoin. After a confident spring strengthening, the ruble has noticeably lost ground, and now the key question for the market is: is this a temporary correction or the start of a prolonged weakening trend?
Why the ruble began to weaken: analysis of key factors
Analyzing the current dynamics, I identify several fundamental reasons that have converged at one point. In the spring, the main driver of the ruble's strength was oil. Due to geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a shortage of actual supplies emerged, and Russian Urals sharply increased in price. As soon as the tension eased and the strait was unblocked, oil prices began to fall, depriving the ruble of its main support.
The second important point is the regulator's stance. An overly strong ruble is objectively disadvantageous for the budget, as it reduces export revenues in ruble terms. Therefore, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank deliberately allowed a controlled weakening. They shifted from selling currency to net buying it, which created additional pressure on the ruble.
The third factor was the behavior of exporters. They began selling foreign currency earnings in smaller volumes, holding onto accumulated funds. Against the backdrop of sell-offs in ruble assets, speculators also joined in, increasing volatility. As a result, pressure on the ruble came from two sides simultaneously — from the Central Bank's actions and from the external economic environment.
Forecasts for the second half of 2025
Analysts' opinions are divided, but I lean toward the view that the weakening trend will persist. A gradual but steady decline of the ruble will continue, and the effect of falling oil prices will gain strength by August. The Central Bank is reducing currency sales in the third quarter, external risks are mounting — most factors are working against the ruble.
An exchange rate in the range of 80-85 rubles per dollar by the end of the year looks like a quite realistic scenario. However, one should not rule out artificial panic spikes, which will likely be promptly contained by the regulator to prevent an economic imbalance.
What an investor should do: a diversification strategy
In the current conditions, I recommend adhering to a diversification strategy. Holding all funds in a single asset is risky. Part of the capital should be gradually converted into foreign currency — dollars or yuan, especially if large purchases are planned. This can be done through bank deposits, cash, or foreign currency bonds.
Another part of the funds should logically remain in ruble deposits if rates remain attractive, as well as in bonds. It is not worth moving entirely into foreign currency, but ignoring current market signals is also unwise. The most important thing is not to panic and not to try to speculate on short-term exchange rate fluctuations, as this carries high risks for a non-professional investor.
My conclusion as an analyst: the current weakening of the ruble is not an accident, but a natural process of market balancing after an anomalously strong spring. The ruble no longer has key support, and fundamental factors point to further gradual weakening. For a conservative investor, diversifying currency assets now is not panic, but a reasonable protection of capital.