The market has stopped believing in a strong ruble. At the end of June, the dollar settled above the 77 ruble mark for the first time in a long while, with the Central Bank's exchange rate on June 30 standing at 77.75 rubles. Just a month earlier, on May 29, the dollar was worth 71.37 rubles. The cryptocurrency segment is already pricing in an even weaker ruble: on P2P platforms, sellers are offering more than 80 rubles for USDT. After a confident spring, the ruble has noticeably lost ground, and now the key question is: is this a short breather or the beginning of a prolonged decline?
Why the ruble began to weaken
There are several fundamental reasons for the weakening, and they are all acting simultaneously. The first is oil. In the spring, due to the military conflict with Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a shortage of actual supplies emerged, and Russian Urals sharply rose in price, which kept the ruble strong. As soon as the strait was opened, the market calmed down, prices went down, and the main support for the ruble disappeared.
The second point is that a too-strong ruble is unfavorable for the budget, as it reduces export revenues in rubles. Therefore, the authorities are deliberately allowing a controlled weakening.
The third factor is the change in capital flows. Since the beginning of 2025, capital outflows have been combated: the outflow has sharply decreased. At the same time, oil in rubles is now more expensive than on average last year, and the currency accumulated by exporters has not yet been sold off—at some point, it will spill onto the market.
Pressure has also been added from the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, which have shifted from selling currency to net purchases. Against this backdrop, speculators and sell-offs of ruble-denominated assets have joined in.
If we put it all together, the main reasons for the ruble's weakening are:
- oil has become cheaper, and the support that held the ruble in the spring has disappeared;
- exporters are selling less currency, and are holding back accumulated revenues for now;
- the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank have shifted from selling currency to buying it;
- speculation and sell-offs of ruble assets have been added;
- a weak ruble is beneficial for the budget.
What will happen to the exchange rate next
Opinions here differ. Some analysts expect a gradual but steady weakening. Due to the lag between the drop in oil and the exchange rate's reaction, the effect will only gain strength by August. Most factors are working against the ruble: in the third quarter, the Central Bank is reducing currency sales, and external risks are increasing.
Other analysts urge not to get carried away with forecasts: factors are changing rapidly, and although an exchange rate of 80-85 rubles is quite possible, betting on such a scenario is not advisable. Panic will be stopped—otherwise, the entire economy would be at risk. They do not provide a direct forecast for further weakening.
Conclusions: experts agree on one thing—the ruble weakened due to cheaper oil and the shift in the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank's policy from selling to buying currency. The spring supports have disappeared. Beyond that, there is no consensus. Some expect continued weakening with a target of 80-84 rubles, others urge not to speculate, while a third group considers the current decline largely artificial and expects it to be halted.
My analysis: The current situation is a classic example of how monetary authorities use the "oil pause" to calibrate the exchange rate in the interests of the budget. However, betting on artificial panic is risky: if the external backdrop deteriorates, controlled weakening could spiral into uncontrolled weakening. Investors should prepare for volatility in the range of 75-85 rubles in the coming months.