At the end of June, the dollar held above the 77 ruble mark for the first time in a long while. The official exchange rate from the Bank of Russia on June 30 was 77.75 rubles, and by July 3, it had already reached 77.92 rubles. For comparison, on May 29, the dollar was worth 71.37 rubles. The cryptocurrency market is pricing in an even weaker ruble: on P2P platforms for USDT — a stablecoin nearly equal to the dollar — many sellers are already offering over 80 rubles.

After a strong spring, the ruble has noticeably lost ground, and now the main question is: is this a brief pause or the start of a prolonged decline?

Why the ruble began to weaken

An analysis of the causes shows we are dealing with a complex set of factors, not just a single coincidence. Key drivers of the weakening:

  • Oil has become cheaper. In the spring, due to the escalation of the conflict with Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a shortage of real supplies emerged, and Russian Urals sharply rose in price, which kept the ruble strong. As soon as the strait was opened, the market calmed down, prices went down, and the ruble's main support disappeared.
  • Exporters are selling less currency. They are currently holding onto their revenue rather than selling it. This reduces the supply of currency on the market.
  • The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank changed their tactics. They shifted from selling currency to net buying, which puts additional pressure on the ruble.
  • Speculators and sell-offs of ruble assets. Against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and falling oil prices, speculators have also joined in.
  • A weak ruble benefits the budget. An overly strong ruble reduces export revenues in rubles, so the authorities are deliberately allowing a controlled weakening.

What will happen to the exchange rate next

Expert opinions are divided, but I highlight three main scenarios:

  • Gradual but steady weakening. It is expected that by the end of summer, the dollar could reach 80-82 rubles, and by the end of the year — 82-84 rubles. This is not a temporary pullback, but a return of the ruble to its real value.
  • Continued weakening. In the third quarter, the Central Bank reduces currency sales, external risks increase — most factors are working against the ruble.
  • Artificial panic. There is an opinion that the current decline is largely artificially provoked and will be contained to prevent an economic collapse. A rate of 80-85 rubles is possible, but betting on this scenario is not advisable.

My analysis and recommendations

As a professional analyst, I believe the current situation is not so much a crisis as a managed correction. The ruble was overvalued in the spring due to a temporary oil shock. Now the market is balancing out. Nevertheless, keeping all funds in one currency is risky.

For an ordinary investor, the optimal strategy is diversification. Part of the funds (no more than 20-30% of the portfolio) can be converted into foreign currency — dollars or yuan — to protect against inflation and possible further weakening of the ruble. The rest should be in ruble bonds or deposits with an adequate interest rate. I do not advise speculating on the exchange rate: it is a zero-sum game for non-professionals. Currency is needed for large import purchases or travel, not for daily trading.

Conclusion: The ruble is weakening for objective reasons — falling oil prices, changes in the policies of the Central Bank and exporters. Further weakening is likely, but it will be controlled. There is no need to panic, but ignoring market signals is also unwise. Diversification and composure are your main tools.