After a confident spring, the Russian currency began to rapidly lose ground. At the end of June, the dollar for the first time in a long while settled above the 77 ruble mark. The official exchange rate of the Bank of Russia on June 30 was 77.75 rubles, and by July 3 it had risen to 77.92 rubles. For comparison: as recently as May 29, the dollar cost 71.37 rubles.

However, the real picture on the market is far more alarming. On cryptocurrency P2P platforms, for the stablecoin USDT, which is practically equal to the dollar, many sellers are already asking for more than 80 rubles. This is a signal: the market is pricing in further weakening of the ruble, and the question now is not whether the decline will happen, but how deep it will be.

Why the ruble began to weaken: five key factors

Analysis shows that the spring strengthening of the ruble was largely artificial and rested on three "pillars": high oil prices due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, minimal activity by the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank in the currency market, and strict control over capital outflows. As soon as the situation changed, the ruble lost its support.

Here are the main reasons for the current weakening:

  • Oil has become cheaper. Urals prices fell sharply after the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. The main factor that supported the ruble in the spring has disappeared.
  • Exporters are selling less currency. Accumulated revenue is being held back for now, and sales volumes have decreased.
  • The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank have changed direction. Regulators have shifted from selling currency to buying it, creating additional pressure on the ruble.
  • Speculators and asset sell-offs. Against a backdrop of uncertainty, a sell-off of ruble-denominated instruments has begun, intensifying the decline.
  • A weak ruble benefits the budget. Weakening the national currency increases ruble revenues from exports, so the authorities may deliberately allow controlled devaluation.

Forecasts: where will the exchange rate go next?

Expert opinions are divided, but most lean towards continued weakening. The most realistic scenario is a gradual rise of the dollar to 80-82 rubles by the end of summer and to 82-84 rubles by the end of the year. This is not a temporary pullback, but a return to a fundamentally justified exchange rate.

However, there are also those who consider the current decline to be artificial panic that will be contained by the authorities. If the panic is not stopped, the entire economy could be at risk—too much weakening of the ruble would hit imports and inflation.

What should an investor do: two camps

There is also no consensus among experts regarding a strategy for retail investors.

Proponents of diversification recommend gradually transferring part of the funds into foreign currency—dollars or yuan. They can be held in cash, in deposits, or in foreign currency bonds. Staying entirely in rubles is risky, especially if major purchases lie ahead.

Opponents of moving into foreign currency insist: an ordinary person needs foreign currency only for trips abroad or buying imported goods. Playing on exchange rate fluctuations is not the best idea for investments. Moreover, any mass shift into foreign currency undermines the economy of one's own country.

Analyst's conclusions

The current situation is a classic example of how a combination of external shocks and internal regulatory decisions shapes a trend. The ruble has indeed weakened, and most likely this is not a short-term episode, but the beginning of a new cycle. However, there is no need to panic: the key advice is diversification. Keeping all funds in one asset is risky, and speculating on the exchange rate is even more so. The best strategy now is to distribute capital among ruble instruments, foreign currency, and possibly protective assets like gold or cryptocurrencies.