By the end of June, the dollar exchange rate settled above the 77 ruble mark for the first time in a long while. The official exchange rate of the Bank of Russia on June 30 was 77.75 rubles, and already on July 3 — 77.92 rubles. For comparison: just a month earlier, on May 29, the dollar was worth 71.37 rubles. The cryptocurrency market signals an even weaker ruble: on P2P platforms for USDT, a stablecoin nearly equal to the dollar, many sellers are already offering more than 80 rubles. After a strong spring, the ruble has noticeably lost ground, and now the main question is: is this a short breather or the start of a prolonged decline?
In my analysis, I highlight several key drivers of the ruble's weakening. The main factor is oil. In the spring, due to the military conflict with Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a shortage of actual supplies emerged, and Russian Urals sharply rose in price, keeping the ruble strong. As soon as the strait was opened, the market calmed down, prices went down, and the ruble's main support disappeared.
The second point is budget policy. A too-strong ruble is disadvantageous for the budget, as it reduces export revenues in rubles. Therefore, the authorities deliberately allow controlled weakening. Demand for currency has increased, exporters began selling less of it, and against the backdrop of sell-offs in ruble assets, speculators also joined in. Pressure came from two sides: from the Central Bank and from external geopolitics, amplified by falling oil and the widening discount of Urals to Brent.
Currently, the market is simply balancing after a strong strengthening — and the ruble strengthened because for several months the state did not enter the currency market at all. At the same time, the currency accumulated by exporters has not yet been sold off, and at some point it will spill onto the market, which could support the ruble.
Exchange Rate Forecast: Where is the Ruble Heading?
Expert opinions are divided, but I see a common trend. Alexander Peresichan expects a gradual but steady weakening. He emphasizes that this is not a temporary pullback after a strong spring, but a return of the ruble to its real value. The effect of the lag between falling oil and the exchange rate reaction, according to his forecast, will only gain strength by August. His target range: 80-82 rubles by the end of summer and 82-84 rubles by the end of the year.
Dmitry Alexandrov also leans toward the ruble continuing to weaken: in the third quarter, the Central Bank reduces currency sales, external risks increase — and most factors work against the ruble.
Other experts urge not to get carried away with forecasts. Igor Shimko believes that a rate of 80-85 rubles is quite possible, but he would not bet on such a scenario — factors change rapidly. Vladimir Levchenko is confident that the panic will be stopped, otherwise the entire economy will be at risk. He does not provide a direct forecast for further weakening.
My analysis shows: experts agree on the main point — the ruble weakened due to cheaper oil and a shift in the policy of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank from selling currency to buying it. The spring supports for the ruble are gone. Beyond that, there is no unity. Peresichan and Alexandrov expect continued weakening (targets — 80-84 rubles). Shimko advises against guessing. Levchenko considers the current decline largely artificial and expects it to be stopped.
Comment from Cryptalist: In my opinion, the current dynamics of the ruble are not panic, but a natural correction after the artificial strengthening in the spring. The key risk for the ruble is not so much oil, but the structural deficit of foreign currency revenue amid sanctions restrictions. Investors should consider diversification: part of the funds in foreign currency (dollar or yuan), part in high-yield ruble instruments. It is not necessary to fully switch to foreign currency, but sitting only in rubles is risky now.