The end of June was marked by a significant event for the Russian currency market: the dollar confidently broke through the 77 ruble mark for the first time in a long time. The official exchange rate of the Bank of Russia on June 30 was 77.75 rubles, and by July 3 it had risen to 77.92 rubles. For comparison, as recently as May 29, the American currency was trading at only 71.37 rubles. The cryptocurrency market, acting as a sensitive barometer, is pricing in an even weaker ruble: on P2P platforms, many sellers are already asking for more than 80 rubles for the stablecoin USDT.
After a relatively strong spring, the ruble has noticeably lost ground. The main question now is: is this a temporary correction or the beginning of a prolonged weakening trend?
Why the ruble began to weaken: my analysis of key factors
The range of reasons for the ruble's weakening is quite broad, but they all boil down to several fundamental shifts.
The oil factor and changes in the Ministry of Finance's policy. In the spring, the Russian currency received strong support from a temporary shortage of actual oil supplies due to geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz area. This led to a sharp increase in the price of Urals. As soon as the situation normalized, oil prices began to fall, and the ruble's main support disappeared. Simultaneously, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank radically changed their tactics in the foreign exchange market, shifting from selling currency to net buying. This created additional pressure on the ruble, as support from the regulator reversed direction.
Decreased currency supply. Exporters, having received excess revenues in previous months, began selling their foreign currency earnings in smaller volumes, holding onto accumulated funds. Amid the sell-off of ruble-denominated assets, speculators also joined this process, increasing pressure on the national currency from both sides simultaneously.
Artificial panic or rebalancing? Some analysts tend to view the current decline as artificially created panic that will be contained. Others, on the contrary, see this as the ruble returning to its real value, which was temporarily distorted by spring events.
Forecasts and scenarios: where the exchange rate is heading
Expert opinions are divided, but I identify two main scenarios based on current data.
Scenario 1: Gradual but steady weakening. This scenario is supported by most factors. The effect of falling oil prices and changes in the Ministry of Finance's policy is expected to gain momentum by August. Under this scenario, the dollar could reach levels of 80-82 rubles by the end of summer and 82-84 rubles by the end of the year. The third quarter traditionally carries additional risks for the ruble due to reduced currency sales by the Central Bank and increasing geopolitical tensions.
Scenario 2: Artificial decline and rebound. A number of experts believe that the current situation is a planned move aimed at weakening the ruble to replenish the budget. In this case, once panic reaches a critical point, regulators will intervene, and the exchange rate will stabilize. No direct forecast for further weakening is given in this scenario, but the possibility of a short-term move to 80-85 rubles is acknowledged.
What an investor should do: my recommendations
In conditions of high uncertainty, there is no universal recipe. However, based on analysis, I highlight two main strategies.
For diversification and a currency "cushion": Some experts recommend gradually converting part of your funds into foreign currency—dollars or yuan. This could be cash currency, a bank deposit, or foreign currency bonds. This is especially relevant if you are planning large purchases of imported goods or trips abroad in the near future. Staying entirely in rubles is currently risky.
Against "currency fever": Another group of analysts believes that an ordinary person only needs foreign currency for travel. Playing on exchange rate fluctuations is not the best idea for a non-professional investor. Moreover, a mass shift into foreign currency undermines the country's economy, and this should not be done.
My professional opinion: The current situation is a classic example of a "bear" market for the ruble, where fundamental factors (oil, fiscal policy) outweigh short-term speculative ones. I lean towards the scenario of gradual weakening with target levels of 80-85 rubles per dollar by the end of the year. For investors not ready for active trading, I would recommend diversifying their savings by including a small portion in hard currency (dollars or yuan) as a hedge. Keeping all funds in a single asset—whether rubles or dollars—is equally risky right now. I would advise speculating on the currency market only for professionals with a clear understanding of the risks.