By the end of June, the dollar strengthened above the 77 ruble mark for the first time in a long while. The official exchange rate set by the Bank of Russia for June 30 was 77.75 rubles, and for July 3, it was already 77.92 rubles. For comparison, just a month earlier, on May 29, the American currency was worth 71.37 rubles. The cryptocurrency market, traditionally an indicator of sentiment, is pricing in an even weaker exchange rate: on P2P platforms, many sellers are already asking for more than 80 rubles for USDT. After a confident spring, the ruble has noticeably lost ground, and now the main question on the market's mind is: is this a temporary correction or the start of a prolonged weakening trend?
Why the ruble began to weaken
Analyzing the current situation, several key factors can be identified that are simultaneously putting pressure on the Russian currency. First and foremost, this is the dynamics of oil prices. In the spring, due to geopolitical tensions around Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a shortage of actual supplies emerged, leading to a sharp increase in the price of Russian Urals. It was this factor that kept the ruble at high levels. As soon as the strait was opened, the market calmed down, oil prices went down, and the ruble's key support disappeared.
The second important point is the stance of the authorities. A ruble that is too strong is disadvantageous for the budget, as it reduces export revenues in ruble terms. Therefore, it is quite logical to assume that regulators are deliberately allowing a controlled weakening of the national currency. Additionally, a change in the structure of operations in the foreign exchange market played a role: the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank switched from selling currency to buying it, creating additional pressure. Exporters are currently holding back the foreign exchange earnings accumulated over the spring, and speculators have also joined in amid the sell-off of ruble-denominated assets.
To summarize, the main reasons for the ruble's weakening are as follows: cheaper oil and the disappearance of support from high prices; a decrease in the volume of currency sales by exporters; a shift in the policy of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank from selling to buying currency; increased activity by speculators and sell-offs of ruble-denominated securities; as well as the objective benefit of a weak ruble for the budget.
Exchange rate forecasts: where we are heading next
Analysts' opinions are divided. Some experts expect a gradual but steady weakening. According to their estimates, due to the lag between the fall in oil prices and the exchange rate reaction, the main effect will only gain momentum by August. External risks are increasing, and most fundamental factors are currently working against the ruble. A scenario with movement into the range of 80-82 rubles by the end of summer and 82-84 rubles by the end of the year is quite likely.
Other analysts urge caution with forecasts, noting that market factors change rapidly. A rate of 80-85 rubles is quite possible, but betting on it would be imprudent. There is also a point of view that the current decline is largely artificially triggered by panic, and regulators will be forced to counteract it, otherwise the entire economy will be at risk.
What an investor should do
On the issue of strategy, experts are divided into two camps. The first recommends diversification: keeping part of the funds in several currencies (at least in dollars and yuan) — in cash, in deposits, or in foreign currency bonds. Others advise gradually converting part of their savings into foreign currency, especially if there are plans for large purchases. In their opinion, staying entirely in rubles is risky.
The opposite point of view is that an ordinary person needs foreign currency only for trips abroad or large purchases of imported goods. Playing on exchange rate fluctuations is not the best idea for investing. A harsher stance: there is no need to switch to foreign currency, as any such outflow undermines the economy of one's own country.
Cryptalist's comment: From my point of view, the current situation is a classic example of a trend change after a period of artificial support. Fundamental factors (oil, fiscal policy) clearly tip the scales in favor of a weaker ruble in the medium term. For an investor, a gradual increase in the share of the foreign currency component seems reasonable, but without panic. Sharp movements in the market are always a zone of increased risk, not an opportunity to make money.