The ruble has entered a phase of noticeable weakening. At the end of June, the dollar settled above the 77 ruble mark for the first time in a long while. The official exchange rate from the Bank of Russia on June 30 was 77.75 rubles, and by July 3, it had reached 77.92 rubles. For comparison, on May 29, the US currency was worth 71.37 rubles. The cryptocurrency market also reflects this trend: on P2P platforms, many sellers are already asking for more than 80 rubles for USDT, a stablecoin pegged to the dollar.
After a relatively strong spring, the Russian currency is losing ground, and the key question now is whether this is a temporary correction or the start of a long-term downward trend.
Fundamental Reasons for the Weakening
An analysis of the current situation points to a complex of factors putting pressure on the ruble. First and foremost is the dynamics of oil prices. In the spring, due to geopolitical tensions near the Strait of Hormuz, a shortage of actual supplies emerged, leading to a sharp rise in the price of Russia's Urals grade. This served as the main support for the ruble. As soon as the situation normalized and the strait was reopened, oil prices began to fall, depriving the ruble of its key support.
The second important aspect is the regulator's actions. A too-strong ruble is disadvantageous for the budget, as it reduces ruble-denominated revenues from exports. In this regard, a line of controlled, managed weakening of the national currency is evident. The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank have changed the parameters of their operations on the foreign exchange market, shifting from selling currency to net buying, which creates additional pressure.
Furthermore, the market is seeing a decrease in the supply of currency from exporters, who are holding back accumulated revenues. Combined with sell-offs of ruble-denominated assets and the involvement of speculators, this forms a sustained trend toward weakening.
Forecasts and Scenarios
Opinions on further dynamics are divided. The most likely scenario appears to be a gradual but steady weakening of the ruble. The effect of lower oil prices and changes in regulator policy is expected to gain full force by August. Target levels for the end of summer are 80-82 rubles per dollar, and by the end of the year, 82-84 rubles.
There is also an alternative viewpoint, according to which the current decline is largely artificial and triggered by panic. In this case, the regulator may take measures to contain the situation, as further uncontrolled weakening threatens the stability of the entire economy. However, even in this scenario, a return to spring lows is unlikely.
The key takeaway for an investor: holding all funds in a single asset is risky. Diversification with an allocation to foreign currency (dollar or yuan) seems a reasonable strategy, especially with large purchases on the horizon. At the same time, currency speculation for a non-professional market participant is a path to losses.
My expert view: The market is entering a period of structural revaluation of the ruble. The oil factor is no longer a reliable anchor, and the actions of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank signal the authorities' comfort with a weaker national currency. Under these conditions, holding positions below 80 rubles per dollar will be a short-term phenomenon, not a new trend.