By the end of June, the US dollar strengthened above the 77 ruble mark for the first time in a long period. The official exchange rate of the Bank of Russia on June 30 was 77.75 rubles, and by July 3 it was 77.92 rubles. For comparison, on May 29, the dollar was worth 71.37 rubles. The cryptocurrency market signals an even weaker ruble: on P2P platforms, many sellers are already asking more than 80 rubles for USDT, a stablecoin pegged to the dollar. After a strong spring, the ruble has noticeably lost ground, and now the key question is: is this a temporary correction or the start of a prolonged trend?
Why the ruble began to weaken
An analysis of the current situation reveals a complex set of factors affecting the Russian currency. The main driver of the spring strengthening—a sharp rise in Urals oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—has exhausted itself. As soon as the supply channel was unblocked, the market calmed down, and the ruble's key support disappeared.
Simultaneously, there was a shift in monetary policy direction. The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank moved from active currency sales to net purchases, creating additional pressure. Exporters, in turn, reduced the volume of foreign currency sales, holding onto accumulated funds in anticipation of a more favorable exchange rate. Added to this were speculative sell-offs of ruble-denominated assets and an overall increase in demand for foreign currency.
Notably, the excess of foreign currency accumulated in the Russian financial system over previous months has not disappeared. On the contrary, it continues to grow. Since the beginning of 2025, there has been an active fight against capital outflows, and the withdrawal of funds has sharply decreased. At the same time, oil in rubles is now more expensive than the average last year. This means that sooner or later, this overhang of currency could spill into the market, providing unexpected support for the ruble. In my assessment, the current decline is largely an artificially provoked panic that the regulator is capable of containing.
Thus, the key reasons for the weakening can be summarized as follows: a decline in oil prices and the disappearance of the "oil support"; the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank's shift from selling to buying currency; reduced currency sales by exporters; speculative pressure and sell-offs of ruble instruments; and the objective budget benefit of a weak ruble.
Exchange rate forecasts: from gradual weakening to artificial panic
Analysts' opinions are divided. Some experts expect a gradual but steady weakening of the ruble. According to their estimates, the full effect of lower oil prices and changes in regulator policy will manifest by August. Target levels cited are 80-82 rubles per dollar by the end of summer and 82-84 rubles by the end of the year. The reasoning is simple: most fundamental factors are currently working against the ruble, and external risks continue to mount.
Another group of analysts urges caution against getting carried away with forecasts. They note that factors are changing rapidly, and while an exchange rate of 80-85 rubles is quite possible, betting on such a scenario would be imprudent. A third group even believes that the current decline is an artificially created panic that will be stopped, as the entire economy would be at risk. They do not provide a direct forecast for further weakening, believing the regulator will intervene.
What should an investor do
Recommendations for retail investors are also divided into two camps.
Proponents of diversification advise holding part of one's assets in several currencies—at least in dollars and yuan. This could be cash currency, a bank deposit, or foreign currency bonds, whose yields are nominally higher than deposit rates. A gradual transfer of part of the funds into dollars or yuan is especially recommended for those with major purchases ahead. In their view, being entirely in rubles is risky.
Opponents of moving into foreign currency believe that an ordinary person needs foreign currency only for trips abroad or large purchases of imported goods. Playing on exchange rate fluctuations is not a good idea for investing. Moreover, moving into foreign currency undermines one's own country's economy.
Conclusions and my view
On the main point, all experts agree: the ruble weakened due to cheaper oil and a change in the course of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank. Beyond that, there is no consensus. Some expect continued weakening to 80-84 rubles, others urge not to speculate, and a third group considers the current decline artificial and counts on regulator intervention.
My expert assessment: the current situation is a classic correction after excessive strengthening, reinforced by a change in regulator policy. However, I lean towards the view that the dollar in the range of 80-85 rubles is not a catastrophe, but a new balance that benefits the budget and exporters. For a long-term investor, diversifying currency risks is a reasonable strategy, but panic buying of currency at the peak of panic is a sure way to lose money. The best approach is to allocate assets: part in high-yield ruble instruments, part in foreign currency (dollar/yuan), and part in protective assets such as gold or stablecoins in DeFi protocols. The market always balances itself, and the investor's task is to be prepared for any scenario, not to chase short-term gains.