Key on-chain metrics of the first cryptocurrency show a frightening similarity to those of the 2022 bear market. The supply in profit has dropped to 51.9%, while the hash rate and mining difficulty are experiencing a record-long decline — about seven months of continuous compression. These two factors, considered together, form a powerful signal of approaching the final phase of the market cycle.
Supply in Profit: Bear Zone Established
The Supply in Profit metric, reflecting the percentage of circulating bitcoins that are in profit based on their purchase price, currently stands at 51.9%. This value is firmly in the "bear zone" (below 55%), where the market historically passed through the bottom phase. Since June of this year, the indicator has consistently remained in this range, with a downward trend persisting since October 2025.
It is particularly telling that the current value is approaching the ~44% mark, which marked the absolute bottom of the 2022 bear market. If we rely on historical parallels, the bottom phase in the last cycle lasted about eight months. Applying this benchmark to current data, it can be assumed that the cycle's low point could be reached by September-October of this year.
Hash Rate and Difficulty: Anomalously Long Compression
The second, no less important signal, is the dynamics of the hash rate and mining difficulty. Both indicators continue to decline within a global structural trend following a sharp drop in January-February. The key difference in the current situation is the unprecedented duration of the decline.
Historically, continuous periods of hash rate decline lasted 64 days (May-July 2021) and 86 days (April-July 2024). The current decline has already stretched to 234 days — about seven months of continuous compression. For bitcoin, this is an extremely unfavorable signal, reflecting fundamental network vulnerability and reduced miner interest.
However, there is also a flip side: if a sustained upward trend establishes in these indicators, it will become an important medium-term and long-term recovery signal. Thus, both indicators are now working in tandem — both holders and the network's fundamentals point to the lower phase of the cycle.
My expert opinion: The market is going through a painful but necessary phase of capitulation. A repeat of the 2022 scenario with a prolonged bottom looks increasingly likely. Long-term oriented investors should closely monitor the hash rate reversal — this will be the first bullish signal, preceding price growth.