The Bitcoin market is once again sending signals that experienced analysts associate with the final phase of the bear cycle. Key on-chain indicators — the supply in profit ratio and the dynamics of the hashrate and mining difficulty — are approaching values seen during the absolute bottom of 2022. This is not just a coincidence, but an interconnected picture indicating that the market is likely on the verge of a reversal.
Supply in Profit: The Bear Market Zone
The "Supply in Profit" metric reflects the percentage of circulating bitcoins that were acquired at a price below the current one. Currently, this indicator stands at 51.9%, firmly placing the market in the "bear zone" — below the 55% threshold. For context, values above 80% are typical of bull markets and euphoria, while the 55–80% range characterizes transitional phases. The current level is almost identical to what we saw at the end of 2022, when the indicator dropped to 44%.
The downward trend of this metric has persisted since October 2025. Applying historical benchmarks, the current bottom phase could extend until September–October 2026, mirroring the eight-month compression cycle of 2022.
Hashrate and Difficulty: Record-Long Compression
The second critical signal is an unprecedentedly prolonged decline in the hashrate and mining difficulty. Unlike past corrections, which lasted 64 days (2021) and 86 days (2024), the current downturn has stretched to 234 days — about seven months of continuous compression. This indicates deep structural pressure on miners, who are forced to shut down equipment due to unprofitability.
However, as I have repeatedly noted in my analyses, it is precisely such periods of extreme hashrate compression that have historically preceded powerful recovery rallies. Once a sustained upward trend is established in these indicators, it will become a crucial medium- and long-term signal of renewed interest in the network and an expansion of its fundamental base.
My expert opinion: The synchronous decline of both indicators — holder sentiment and the network's fundamental stability — is a classic sign of the final stage of the bear cycle. The market is flushing out weak hands and inefficient miners, preparing for a new bullish phase. For patient investors, current levels represent a zone of strategic accumulation, not panic.