The Bitcoin market is sending signals that experienced analysts interpret as the approach of the final phase of the bear cycle. Key on-chain indicators — the supply in profit ratio, hash rate, and mining difficulty — are showing values close to the historical lows of 2022. This is not a coincidence, but interconnected signs of a prolonged bottom phase that could precede a trend reversal.
Supply in Profit Ratio: Bear Zone Consolidates
The Supply in Profit indicator currently stands at 51.9%. This means that less than 52% of all circulating bitcoins are in profit based on their acquisition price. Since June of this year, this metric has consistently remained in the zone corresponding to a bear market and bottom phase (below 55%). For context, in 2022, the absolute cycle bottom was recorded at around 44%.
The downward trend for this metric has persisted since October 2025. Applying historical benchmarks, the current phase could extend until September-October, mirroring the eight-month bottom period of the previous cycle. The data confidently points to a move toward the final bottom, rather than a random correction.
Record Decline in Hash Rate and Difficulty: 234 Days of Compression
The second critical signal is the dynamics of the hash rate and mining difficulty. Both indicators continue to decline within a global structural trend following a sharp drop in January-February. The key difference between the current situation and previous corrections is the abnormal duration of the decline.
Historically, continuous hash rate declines lasted 64 days (May-July 2021) and 86 days (April-July 2024). The current decline has already stretched to 234 days — about seven months of continuous compression. This is an extremely unfavorable signal, reflecting fundamental network vulnerability. However, there is a flip side: if a sustained upward trend consolidates in these indicators, it would become an important medium- and long-term signal of renewed miner interest and network expansion.
Analytical Conclusion: The synchronized operation of both indicators — involving holders and network fundamentals — is rare. We are currently observing such a convergence. This increases the likelihood that the market is in the final stage of the bear cycle. However, the key trigger for a reversal is the recovery of the hash rate. Without it, any price rally will be unsustainable.