Key on-chain indicators for Bitcoin are approaching levels last seen during the 2022 bear market. The supply in profit has dropped to 51.9%, entering the "bottom" zone, while the hash rate and mining difficulty are experiencing a record-long decline, lasting about seven months. This synchronized movement of two fundamental metrics is a powerful signal that the current market cycle is approaching its final phase.
Analysis of on-chain data shows that the Bitcoin market is experiencing a prolonged bottom phase, with both key indicators working in tandem. The first, supply in profit, reflects the state of holders and the cycle stage. The second, hash rate and mining difficulty, demonstrates the fundamental resilience of the network. Their simultaneous decline to extreme values is a rare and significant event.
Supply in Profit: At Bear Market Levels
The "Supply in Profit" metric shows the percentage of circulating Bitcoins that are in profit. Values above 80% correspond to a bull market and euphoria, the 55–80% range represents a transition phase, and levels of 55% and below indicate a bear market and bottom phase. Currently, the indicator stands at 51.9% and has been steadily holding in this zone since June.
The downward trend has persisted since October 2025, and the metric is approaching the level of around 44%, which marked the absolute bottom of the 2022 bear market. In the previous cycle, the bottom phase lasted about eight months. Applying this historical benchmark to current data, the present phase could extend until September or October. Market cycles tend to repeat, and on-chain data strongly points to a movement toward the final bottom.
Record-Long Decline in Hash Rate and Difficulty
The second signal is the dynamics of mining difficulty and network hash rate. Both indicators continue to decline within a global structural trend following sharp drops in January and February. The key difference in the current situation is that the decline is lasting significantly longer than previous corrections. Historically, continuous declines lasted 64 days from May to July 2021 and 86 days from April to July 2024.
The current decline has stretched to 234 days—about seven months of continuous compression. For Bitcoin, a prolonged decrease in difficulty and hash rate, which reflect network security and fundamental resilience, is an unfavorable signal. However, it is worth noting the flip side: if a sustained upward trend takes hold in these indicators, it would become an important medium- and long-term signal of renewed interest and network expansion.
Expert opinion: The synchronized decline in supply in profit and hash rate to levels near the 2022 lows is a rare event that historically preceded a market reversal. Although the duration of the current phase may cause concern, it is precisely such periods that often create the most attractive entry points for long-term investors. The key signal for a trend change is a sustained increase in hash rate, which would confirm the recovery of the network's fundamental base.