The Bitcoin market is sending signals that experienced analysts associate with approaching the final phase of the bear cycle. Key on-chain indicators — the proportion of supply in profit and the dynamics of the hashrate along with mining difficulty — have dropped to levels seen during the deep bottom of 2022. This is not a coincidence, but rather an interconnected picture pointing to extreme market compression.
According to my data analysis, the share of Bitcoin supply in profit currently stands at 51.9%. This indicator has been firmly in the "bear zone" since June, with a downward trend persisting since October 2025. Historically, values above 80% correspond to a bull market and euphoria, the 55–80% range to a transitional phase, and levels of 55% and below to a bear market and bottom phase. The current value is approaching the mark of around 44%, which marked the absolute bottom of the 2022 bear market. If we apply the historical benchmark, the current phase could extend until September or October, repeating the eight-month cycle of the previous bottom.
Record compression of mining infrastructure
The second critical signal is the unprecedented duration of the decline in hashrate and mining difficulty. Unlike past corrections, which lasted 64 days (May–July 2021) and 86 days (April–July 2024), the current decline has already stretched to 234 days — about seven months of continuous compression. This indicates that miners are under severe pressure, which is a classic sign of "capitulation" at the cycle bottom. However, there is a positive nuance: if a sustained upward trend takes hold in these indicators, it will become an important medium-term and long-term signal of renewed interest and network expansion.
My expert conclusion: The synchronized movement of these two independent metrics — holder sentiment and fundamental network stability — is rarely seen outside of true bottom phases. The market is likely in the final stage of consolidation, and any confirmation of a reversal in the hashrate will become a powerful bullish catalyst. Investors should closely monitor these levels, as historically, such periods precede the most significant rallies.