The cryptocurrency market has encountered a worrying signal: the inflow of stablecoins to centralized exchanges has plummeted to its lowest level in a year and a half. This metric, traditionally seen as an indicator of "fuel" for purchases, has dropped so much that it casts doubt on the possibility of sustainable Bitcoin growth in the near term.
According to data from leading analytical platforms, the average daily volume of incoming stablecoin transactions to exchanges is only 21,557. This is 56.25% lower than recent peak levels. For comparison, at the peak of the Bitcoin rally in mid-2025, daily inflows reached 100,000–280,000 transactions. It was this volume of capital that created the strong buying pressure pushing BTC's price to all-time highs.
Now, the situation is radically different. Stablecoins on exchanges represent capital "ready for deployment," i.e., money waiting for the right moment to enter the market. The sharp reduction in this pool signals that buyers have stepped into the background. Bitcoin's price, trading around $62,397, reflects only part of the overall picture. On-chain data points to a deeper problem: liquidity ready for purchases has virtually dried up.
Rate of Change Indicator Confirms Stagnation
Additional concern comes from the Rate of Change (ROC) indicator for stablecoin inflows. The only notable spike was recorded in May 2026, but this short-term wave failed to reverse the overall trend. Since then, the ROC has moved sideways, confirming that the May movement was an isolated event rather than the start of a recovery. The market is stuck in a phase of low activity.
Two Scenarios for the Market
Based on current dynamics, two main scenarios for development can be identified. The first is bearish: if stablecoin inflows remain below 30,000 transactions per day over the next two weeks, Bitcoin could retest the support zone of $58,000–$60,000. This would mean a continuation of the correction and a lack of strength for a rebound.
The second scenario is a bullish reversal. It will only materialize if stablecoin inflows sustainably rise above 80,000–100,000 transactions. Such a recovery would be the first real sign of buyers returning and could trigger a notable rise in the BTC exchange rate.
My expert assessment: Until we see a sustained increase in stablecoin inflows, any Bitcoin growth will be local in nature and quickly fizzle out. The market is in a waiting phase, and the key trigger for a new rally will be the return of large buying capital to exchanges. Keep an eye on this metric—it is now more important than the price of Bitcoin itself.