The Bitcoin market is showing increasingly clear signs of approaching the bottom of the current cycle. Key on-chain indicators — the supply in profit ratio and mining metrics — are synchronously moving toward extreme values last seen during the 2022 bear market. In my view, the current picture deserves close attention, as it points to the completion of the capitulation phase.
The Supply in Profit metric, which reflects the percentage of coins in profit, has dropped to 51.9%. This is a level historically corresponding to the bear zone and the cycle bottom phase. Since June of this year, the indicator has been steadily holding in this range, and since October 2025, it has shown a consistent downward trend. The current value is approaching the absolute low of 2022, when the indicator fell to ~44%. Based on historical analogy, the bottom phase in the last cycle lasted about eight months, suggesting that the current consolidation could extend until September-October.
Record prolonged compression of hashrate and difficulty
The second, equally important signal is the dynamics of hashrate and mining difficulty. Both indicators continue to decline within a global structural trend following a sharp drop in January-February. The key difference in the current situation is the unprecedented duration of the decline. While previous corrections in 2021 and 2024 lasted 64 and 86 days respectively, the current period of continuous compression has stretched to 234 days, or nearly seven months. Such a prolonged decline in fundamental network metrics is an alarming but predictable signal for a bear market.
However, there is also a flip side to this data. Once a sustained upward trend is established in the dynamics of hashrate and difficulty, it will become a powerful medium- and long-term signal of renewed interest and network expansion. For now, both indicators — holder sentiment and fundamental network stability — are working in unison, indicating that we are in the lower phase of the cycle.
My analysis: The synchronous decline of on-chain metrics to 2022 levels is not a coincidence but a natural stage of the market cycle. The current situation resembles the "squeezing out" of the last weak hands and the redistribution of coins from impatient speculators to long-term holders. For patient investors, this could be one of the best moments for accumulation, despite the ongoing volatility.