The Bitcoin market appears to be approaching the end of its current bear cycle. On-chain data analysis shows that several fundamental indicators, including the supply in profit and the hashrate, are approaching values last seen during the 2022 bear market. This forms a compelling scenario pointing to the formation of a market bottom.
Supply in Profit: Bear Market Zone
A key metric signaling the cycle phase is the "Supply in Profit" indicator. This metric reflects the percentage of all circulating bitcoins that are in profit based on their acquisition price. Historically, values above 80% correspond to a bull market and euphoria, the 55–80% range represents a transition phase, and levels of 55% and below indicate a bear market and bottom phase.
Currently, the indicator stands at 51.9%, firmly entrenched in the bear market zone since June of this year. The downward trend has persisted since October 2025, and the metric is steadily approaching the level of around 44%, which marked the absolute bottom of the 2022 bear market. In the previous cycle, the bottom phase lasted about eight months. Applying this historical benchmark to current data, the current phase could extend until September or October.
Record Decline in Hashrate and Mining Difficulty
A second critical signal comes from the dynamics of mining difficulty and network hashrate. Both indicators continue to decline within a global structural trend following sharp drops in January and February.
A key difference in the current situation is the unprecedented duration of the decline. Historically, continuous hashrate declines lasted 64 days (May–July 2021) and 86 days (April–July 2024). The current decline has stretched to 234 days — about seven months of continuous compression. The prolonged decline in difficulty and hashrate, which reflect network security and fundamental resilience, is a concerning but also characteristic signal of a cycle bottom.
At the same time, I note the flip side of the coin. If a sustained upward trend takes hold in these indicators, it would become an important medium- and long-term signal of renewed interest and network expansion. Thus, both indicators are now working in tandem: both holders and the network's fundamentals point to the bottom phase of the cycle.
Cryptalist Analyst Comment: The synchronized decline of on-chain metrics and hashrate to levels comparable to the 2022 bottom is not a coincidence but a classic pattern of a bear cycle's conclusion. The market is likely in the final stage of capitulation, where weak hands exit positions and miners reduce capacity. For long-term investors, current levels represent a zone of strategic attractiveness, although with the risk of temporary drawdowns remaining.