Key on-chain indicators of the first cryptocurrency show a frightening similarity to the metrics of the 2022 bear market. The supply in profit has dropped to 51.9%, entering the "bear zone," while the hash rate and mining difficulty are falling at record rates for about seven months. In my view, this data forms a compelling argument that the market is in the final phase of the current cycle.
Supply in Profit: A Repeat of the 2022 Scenario
The "Supply in Profit" (SiP) metric is one of the most reliable indicators for determining the phase of a market cycle. Values above 80% traditionally correspond to a bull market and euphoria, the 55–80% range to a transition phase, and levels below 55% to a bear market and bottom zone.
Currently, the indicator stands at 51.9%. It has been steadily in the "bear zone" since June of last year, with a downward trend persisting since October 2025. The current value is dangerously approaching the level of around 44%, which marked the absolute bottom of the 2022 bear market. In the previous cycle, the bottom phase lasted about eight months. Applying this historical benchmark, the current phase could extend until September or October of this year.
Hash Rate and Difficulty: Record-Long Compression
The second critical signal is the dynamics of mining difficulty and network hash rate. Both indicators continue to decline within a global structural trend following sharp drops in January and February. The key difference between the current situation and previous corrections is the unprecedented duration of the decline.
Historically, continuous hash rate declines lasted 64 days (May–July 2021) and 86 days (April–July 2024). The current decline has already stretched to 234 days—about seven months of continuous compression. This is an extremely unfavorable signal, reflecting fundamental network vulnerability and declining miner interest.
My analysis: The synchronized movement of both indicators—SiP and hash rate—is a powerful confirmation that we are in the bottom phase of the cycle. However, it is important to understand: if a sustained upward trend establishes itself in these metrics, it will become a crucial medium- and long-term recovery signal. For now, the market shows classic signs of bottom formation, but time and patience remain key factors for investors.