Key on-chain indicators for Bitcoin are converging with extreme values typical of the bottom of the previous bear cycle. The supply in profit has dropped to 51.9%, entering the "bear market" zone, while the hash rate and mining difficulty are experiencing a record-long decline—already around seven months. Together, these signals point to an approaching market bottom, although the exact timing of the reversal remains uncertain.
Analysis of two key metrics—the supply in profit and hash rate dynamics—provides a comprehensive picture of the current cycle phase. The first indicator reflects holder sentiment and cycle stage, while the second represents the network's fundamental resilience. Their synchronized movement toward the lower bounds of historical ranges is a strong argument that the market is in the final stage of the bear phase.
Supply in Profit: Bear Zone and Historical Benchmark
The "Supply in Profit" metric (the share of circulating bitcoins in profit) currently stands at 51.9%. Values above 80% traditionally correspond to a bull market and euphoria, the 55–80% range to a transition phase, and levels of 55% and below to a bear market and bottom phase. The current reading is not only deep in the "red zone" but has also held steady there since June.
The downward trend has persisted since October 2025, and the metric is approaching the level of around 44%, which marked the absolute bottom of the 2022 bear market. If this historical benchmark is applied to current data, the current phase could extend until September or October. In the previous cycle, the bottom phase lasted about eight months.
Record-Long Decline in Hash Rate and Difficulty
The second key signal is the dynamics of mining difficulty and network hash rate. Both indicators continue to decline within a global structural trend following sharp drops in January and February. The key difference in the current situation is the unprecedented duration of the decline. Historically, continuous declines lasted 64 days (May–July 2021) and 86 days (April–July 2024).
The current decline has stretched to 234 days—about seven months of continuous compression. For Bitcoin, such a prolonged decline in difficulty and hash rate, which reflect network security and fundamental resilience, is an unfavorable signal. However, it is precisely during such times that the foundations for future growth are laid.
At the same time, it is worth noting the flip side. If a sustained upward trend takes hold in these indicators, it will become an important medium- and long-term signal of renewed interest and network expansion. Thus, both indicators are now working in tandem: both holders and the network's foundation point to the bottom phase of the cycle.
Expert opinion: The current configuration of on-chain data is a rare case of a synchronized signal from "behavioral" and "fundamental" metrics. This increases the likelihood that we are near or already at the cycle bottom, but it does not guarantee an immediate reversal. The market could remain in this phase for several more months, waiting for a trigger to change the trend. The key signal for entry is a reversal of the hash rate upward, accompanied by stabilization of the supply in profit above 55%.