The cryptocurrency market is holding its breath: several independent analytical assessments published ahead of US Independence Day indicate that Bitcoin could be the first victim of a potential reversal in the American stock market. The overall picture is shaped by three key elements: the secular cycle of the stock market, record capital inflows into US equities, and the growing dependence of BTC's price on the dynamics of traditional assets.
The Secular Cycle of the S&P 500: The Final Stage of the Boom
An analysis of the long-term dynamics of the S&P 500 index reveals a recurring pattern: technology booms last approximately 24–25 years, followed by a decade of stagnation. History records two such cycles: the electronics and automation boom (1942–1966) with a 2,536% rise and nine subsequent years of sideways movement, and the PC and internet boom (1975–2000), which brought a 2,665% gain and again gave way to nine years of stagnation.
The current cycle, which began in 2009 with the era of smartphones, e-commerce, and artificial intelligence, should, by this logic, end around 2033. This means the bull market still has about seven years left, but the key nuance is that the steepest growth segments always occur at the end. Historical experience suggests: such markets die not from "old age," but from euphoria, which inevitably gives way to a sharp downturn.
Record Capital Inflows: The Last Call?
Alongside this, there is unprecedented demand for US stocks from global investors. The cumulative inflow from global investment funds since the start of the year has reached about 2.5% of their total assets under management. This figure has more than doubled since May and significantly exceeds the average level for 2002–2025, when an outflow of about 0.3% was recorded for the same date.
The current pace of inflows has already surpassed the full-year result typical for the average half of the years since 2002. Experts describe the demand for US stocks as unprecedented. However, it is precisely these peak values that often precede reversals, laying the groundwork for a large-scale correction.
Bitcoin as a Hostage of the Stock Market
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin is showing a worrying trend: its stability directly depends on the dynamics of the US stock market. Analysts warn: if the stock market does not hold at current levels, Bitcoin will likely find itself closer to $10,000. For comparison, over the year to July 4, the total return of the S&P 500, gold, and copper rose by about 21–25%, while BTC lost about 40%.
This means that the cryptocurrency is already acting as a lagging asset even against a strong stock market. At the first sign of a shift in sentiment, Bitcoin will be the most vulnerable. Gold, according to the same forecasts, could pull back to $3,000 per ounce, and WTI oil could fall below $50 per barrel.
My comment as an analyst: The scenario of BTC falling to $10,000 looks realistic if the US stock market indeed enters a correction phase. Bitcoin's current underperformance relative to traditional assets is not a sign of weakness, but a signal that institutional money is flowing into safer instruments. The cryptocurrency has not yet become "digital gold" and remains a high-risk asset tied to risk appetite in global markets. Investors should be prepared for increased volatility in the coming months.