The past week was eventful for the crypto market. The leading cryptocurrency recovered from a local low, the transition period for the MiCA regulation ended in Europe, and Russia finally outlined specific timelines for launching crypto regulation. Let's break down the key events.

Bitcoin Recovers June Losses

After its weakest month in four years, Bitcoin started July with a confident rebound. On July 1, the price rose above $60,000, bouncing off a nearly two-year low around $57,700. The rally accelerated following comments from Fed Governor Kevin Warsh about persistently high inflation in the US. By Saturday, the rate reached $63,300 on Binance, before correcting to around $62,700.

BTC gained 4.6% over the week, but some altcoins showed much more impressive dynamics. Solana rose by 12.7%, Ethereum by 11.7%, and the Hyperliquid token by over 10%. The total market capitalization recovered from $2.07 trillion to $2.17 trillion. Notably, Bitcoin's dominance decreased from 58.1% to 57.9%, while Ethereum's share jumped from 9.2% to 9.8%. The Fear and Greed Index, although rising from 18 to 23 points, remains in the extreme fear zone, indicating persistent investor nervousness.

Despite the positive price dynamics, outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs continued for the eighth consecutive week, totaling $526.6 million. However, on July 2, an inflow of $221.7 million was recorded, which may signal a resurgence of institutional interest. Ethereum-based funds also lost $13.7 million over the week.

MiCA: Transition Period Ends, a New Era Begins

On July 1, 2026, the transition period for crypto platforms under the MiCA regulation ended in the European Union. Companies that failed to obtain a license are required to cease servicing clients from the EU. According to the ESMA register, by the end of the period, there were 244 authorized crypto service providers in the EU and EEA. Among the approved platforms with notable spot liquidity are Kraken, Coinbase, and Bitstamp. The European Commission has already begun reviewing the regulation, launching public consultations. This is an important signal: the market is evolving, and the regulatory framework must adapt to new realities.

Russia: Crypto Regulation from September 1

Vladimir Chistyukhin, First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia, announced at the Bank of Russia Financial Congress the date for the law on crypto market regulation to take effect — September 1. After this, market participants will be given time to prepare until July 1, 2027, when administrative and criminal liability for illegal operations will come into force. The first operations under the new regime are expected by the end of this year or the beginning of next. This is a long-awaited step that will finally bring clarity to the legal framework for Russian crypto enthusiasts and businesses.

Expert Opinion

Bitcoin's recovery above $62,000 amid continued ETF outflows is a classic example of divergence between the spot market and institutional products. Retail investors appear to have returned to buying, while "smart money" is still waiting on the sidelines. The end of the MiCA transition period is a serious filter that will cleanse the European market of unscrupulous players, but in the short term, it could lead to reduced liquidity. As for Russia, deadlines have been shifted before, so September 1 should be viewed with cautious optimism. The market needs not just a date, but a functioning infrastructure.