Key on-chain metrics of Bitcoin show a frightening similarity to the indicators of the 2022 bear market bottom. The supply in profit has plummeted to 51.9%, entering the "red zone," while the hashrate and mining difficulty are experiencing a record-long decline — already around seven months. The market is frozen in anticipation of the cycle's final point.
Analyzing the current state of the Bitcoin network, I see two powerful signals working in unison. The first is the "Supply in Profit" (SiP) metric, which currently stands at 51.9%. For context: values above 80% correspond to bullish euphoria, the 55–80% range is a transitional phase, and everything below 55% is a classic bear market and bottom formation zone. We have been deep in this zone since June of last year, and the downward trend in SiP has not weakened since October 2025.
The current value is already dangerously close to the ~44% mark, which defined the absolute bottom of the 2022 cycle. If we rely on history, where the bottom phase lasted about eight months, the current consolidation could drag on until September-October. The data confidently points to a move toward the final low, not a random drawdown.
Hashrate Hits Record-Long Duration
The second, equally important signal is the dynamics of the hashrate and mining difficulty. Both indicators continue to decline within a global structural trend after a sharp crash in January-February. But the key difference in the current correction is its unprecedented duration.
Historically, the longest continuous hashrate declines lasted 64 days (May-July 2021) and 86 days (April-July 2024). Now we are observing a decline that has stretched to 234 days — nearly seven months of continuous compression. This is an extremely unfavorable signal for the network's short-term prospects, reflecting fundamental pressure on miners.
However, there is also a flip side to the coin. Once a sustained upward trend is established in these indicators, it will become a powerful medium- and long-term signal of renewed interest and network expansion. For now, both holders (via SiP) and the network's foundation (via hashrate) synchronously indicate that we are in the lower phase of the cycle.
My analysis: The market is going through a "purgatory." Such a synchronous decline in on-chain metrics is not noise but a structural pattern preceding a reversal. Investors should prepare for volatility, but historically, it is precisely such periods that have created the best entry points for long-term positions. Patience is now the main asset.