The past week was marked by a confident market recovery, a significant regulatory milestone in Europe, and the specification of plans for cryptocurrency legalization in Russia. Let's break down the key events that influenced investor sentiment.
Bitcoin Recovers June Losses
The leading cryptocurrency showed an impressive rebound from its local bottom. After the weakest month in four years, Bitcoin recovered on July 1 from around $57,700, breaking through the psychological level of $60,000. The growth continued despite pressure from macroeconomic factors and sell-offs in tech giant stocks. By Saturday, July 4, the rate reached a local high of $63,300 on Binance, before correcting to $62,700.
Over the week, the asset gained 4.6%. However, altcoins in the top 10 showed an even more aggressive recovery: Solana rose by 12.7%, Ethereum by 11.7%, and the Hyperliquid token by over 10%. This indicates a flow of liquidity into riskier assets amid market stabilization.
Nevertheless, the Fear and Greed Index remains in the "extreme fear" zone, rising only from 18 to 23 points. This suggests that retail investors are still extremely cautious, and the current growth is more institutional in nature. The total market capitalization increased from $2.07 trillion to $2.17 trillion, while Bitcoin's dominance slightly decreased from 58.1% to 57.9%.
Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs continued for the eighth consecutive week, totaling $526.6 million. However, on July 2, a strong inflow of $221.7 million was recorded, which could signal a change in the short-term trend. Ethereum funds also lost $13.7 million over the week.
Europe Closes MiCA Transition Period
July 1, 2026, became a historic date for the European crypto market: the transition period of the MiCA regulation expired. Crypto platforms that failed to obtain a license are required to cease servicing clients from the EU. According to ESMA, by this time, the register listed 244 authorized providers, including giants like Kraken, Coinbase, and Bitstamp.
This event finally consolidates the EU market, cutting off unscrupulous players and setting a precedent for other jurisdictions. The European Commission has already begun reviewing the regulation to adapt it to new market realities.
Russia: Cryptocurrency Law May Take Effect in September
First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia, Vladimir Chistyukhin, outlined key dates for launching crypto regulation at the Financial Congress. The law could take effect as early as September 1, 2026. After that, market participants will be given a transition period until July 1, 2027, to obtain licenses and restructure processes. Administrative and criminal liability for illegal operations will come into effect from the same date.
Chistyukhin expects the first legal operations under the new regime by the end of this year or the beginning of next. This is a clear signal to the market: the process is underway, and companies have a clear timeline for preparation.
Ethereum Institutional and StarkNet Quantum Protection
In the Ethereum ecosystem, an independent non-profit organization, Ethereum Institutional, has been launched, aimed at attracting banks and asset managers. This is an important step for the institutional legitimization of the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
Meanwhile, StarkWare presented a roadmap for protecting StarkNet from quantum threats. The plan involves replacing elliptic curve cryptography with post-quantum solutions, leveraging the architectural advantage of STARK proofs, which are already resistant to quantum attacks.
My Expert Opinion: The week showed that the market is ready for growth, but the potential of this movement is still constrained by macroeconomic uncertainty and ETF outflows. However, the full launch of MiCA and clear signals from the Central Bank of Russia create a long-term positive backdrop for the entire industry. Investors should closely monitor the dynamics of ETF inflows and the $60,000 level as key support. A breakout above $63,500 could open the door to new local highs.