The Bitcoin price risks becoming the main victim of a potential reversal in the US stock market. This conclusion is drawn from observations by several independent analysts, published on US Independence Day, July 4.
Each author examines a different segment of the market, but together their conclusions form a chain: from the century-long cycle of the stock market, through record capital inflows into US stocks, to Bitcoin's dependence on their dynamics. The overall picture is this: the US securities market is in a late, but not yet final, growth phase, and BTC finds itself hostage to this movement.
The Century-Long Stock Market Cycle
Analyst Thierry Borges points to a long-term market cycle. The S&P 500 index has been repeating the same pattern for a hundred years: a technology boom lasting about 24–25 years, followed by a decade of stagnation.
Historical examples confirm this model. The electronics and automation boom starting in 1942 lasted 24 years and yielded a 2536% gain, followed by nine years of sideways movement. The PC and internet boom starting in 1975 lasted 25 years and brought 2665%, again followed by nine years of stagnation.
The current cycle, which began in 2009 with smartphones, e-commerce, and now AI, will, by this logic, end around 2033. According to the analyst, the bull market has about seven years left, but the steepest growth phase has always come at the end, and such markets die not from old age, but from euphoria.
Record Capital Inflow into US Stocks
The analytical firm The Kobeissi Letter reported on current demand for stocks. Foreign investors are pouring money into US stocks at a record pace.
The cumulative inflow from global investment funds since the start of the year has reached about 2.5% of their total assets under management. This figure has more than doubled since May and significantly exceeds the average level for 2002–2025, when an outflow of about 0.3% was recorded by this date.
According to the firm's assessment, the current pace of inflow since the start of the year has already exceeded the full-year result typical for the average half of the years since 2002. Experts called the demand for US stocks unprecedented.
Bitcoin as a Hostage of the Stock Market
Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone stated Bitcoin's dependence on stocks. According to him, the resilience of all commodity and crypto assets directly depends on whether US securities continue to rise.
McGlone warned: if the stock market does not hold above current levels, Bitcoin will more likely be closer to $10,000, gold will retreat to $3,000 per ounce, and WTI oil will fall below $50 per barrel. He noted that over the year to July 4, the total return of the S&P 500, gold, and copper increased by approximately 21–25%.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has already acted as a lagging asset. According to the analyst, over the year to this date, it lost about 40%, while oil remained roughly flat. This shows that the cryptocurrency is weakening even against the backdrop of a strong stock market.
If these observations are combined, a common logic for Bitcoin emerges. Provided that the cycle described by Borges has entered a late euphoric phase, and the capital inflow into stocks recorded by The Kobeissi Letter supports growth, Bitcoin could move higher in the short term, following stocks.
According to McGlone's forecast logic, any reversal in the stock market will hit the cryptocurrency the hardest—and Bitcoin's current underperformance makes it particularly vulnerable at the first sign of a sentiment shift.
Cryptalist Commentary: The cryptocurrency market continues to show a high correlation with traditional assets, especially during periods of uncertainty. Investors should closely monitor US macroeconomic indicators, as any shift in stock market sentiment could trigger a sharp drop in Bitcoin. BTC's current weakness amid rising stocks is a warning sign, indicating a lack of its own internal strength.