The past week was eventful for the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin managed to bounce from local lows, surpassing the $62,500 mark, while in the European Union, the transitional period of the MiCA regulation concluded, and Russian regulators finally set a date for the launch of full-fledged crypto regulation.
Bitcoin Recovers Despite Macro Pressure
The leading cryptocurrency started the week with a decisive bounce from a nearly two-year low around $57,700. By July 1, the price had stabilized above $60,000, and by Saturday, July 4, it reached $63,300 on Binance, before correcting to $62,700. Over the week, the asset gained 4.6%. It is important to note that the upward movement began amid statements from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh about persistently high inflation in the US — this confirms that the market remains sensitive to macroeconomic signals.
Altcoins showed even more impressive dynamics: Solana rose by 12.7%, Ethereum by 11.7%, and the Hyperliquid token increased by over 10%. The total market capitalization recovered from $2.07 trillion to $2.17 trillion, while Bitcoin's dominance decreased from 58.1% to 57.9%, and Ethereum's share jumped from 9.2% to 9.8%. This indicates a flow of liquidity into altcoins, which often precedes a broader rally.
However, the Fear and Greed Index remains in the extreme fear zone, rising only 5 points — from 18 to 23. This suggests that investors are still cautious despite the price bounce. Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs continued for the eighth consecutive week, totaling $526.6 million, although on July 2, the products attracted $221.7 million — possibly a signal of an impending trend reversal.
Europe Closes the 'Gray Zone': MiCA in Action
On July 1, 2026, the full regulatory regime for crypto assets in the European Union came into effect. The transitional period, which allowed companies to operate under national rules, has expired. According to an ESMA statement, all platforms that have not obtained a license must cease servicing European clients. By the end of the period, ESMA's register listed 244 authorized crypto service providers, including Kraken, Coinbase, and Bitstamp. Concurrently, the European Commission has already begun reviewing MiCA, launching public consultations — this indicates that the regulator recognizes the need to adapt the document to the rapidly changing market.
Russia: Regulatory Deadlines and New Structures
First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia, Vladimir Chistyukhin, announced that the law on crypto market regulation could come into force on September 1. After that, market participants will be given time to prepare until July 1, 2027, after which administrative and criminal liability for illegal operations will take effect. The first operations under the new regime are expected by the end of this year or the beginning of next. Simultaneously, a non-profit organization, Ethereum Institutional, has been launched within the Ethereum ecosystem to promote the network among banks and asset managers — this is an important step for the institutional legitimization of the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
My Expert Opinion: The market is in a consolidation phase, where macroeconomic factors and regulatory decisions play a key role. Bitcoin's bounce above $62,500 is more of a technical than a fundamental signal, but the completion of the MiCA transitional period and the launch of Ethereum Institutional create a long-term foundation for institutional capital inflows. Investors should closely monitor ETF dynamics and the Fear and Greed Index — exiting the extreme fear zone could be a trigger for a new rally.