The past week was marked by a confident recovery of Bitcoin from its local low, the end of the MiCA transitional period in the European Union, and the specification of timelines for launching crypto regulation in Russia. The market is showing signs of revival, despite persistent pessimism among retail investors.
Bitcoin recovers, altcoins lead the way
The leading cryptocurrency, after its worst June in four years, bounced from the $57,700 mark and consolidated above $60,000 as early as July 1. The upward momentum was fueled by statements from Fed Governor Kevin Warsh about persistent high inflation in the U.S. By Saturday, July 4, the rate reached $63,300 on Binance, but then corrected to $62,700. Over the week, Bitcoin gained 4.6%.
However, the flagship asset lagged behind several altcoins in the top 10 in terms of growth rate. Solana rose by 12.7%, Ethereum by 11.7%, and the Hyperliquid token added over 10%. The total market capitalization recovered from $2.07 trillion to $2.17 trillion. Notably, Bitcoin's dominance decreased from 58.1% to 57.9%, while Ethereum's share jumped from 9.2% to 9.8%.
Despite the positive price dynamics, outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs continued for the eighth consecutive week, totaling $526.6 million. However, on July 2, the products attracted $221.7 million, which could indicate a shift in sentiment among large players. The Fear and Greed Index, although rising from 18 to 23 points, remains in the extreme fear zone, which historically often precedes trend reversals.
MiCA: Transitional period ends, a new era begins
On July 1, 2026, the transitional period for crypto platforms under the MiCA regulation expired in the European Union. Companies that failed to obtain a license are required to cease servicing clients from the EU. According to the ESMA register, by this time there were 244 authorized crypto service providers in the EU and EEA. Among the approved platforms with notable spot liquidity are Kraken, Coinbase, and Bitstamp. Notably, the European Commission has already launched a review of the regulation, assessing its alignment with current market realities.
Russia: Regulatory timelines defined
First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia Vladimir Chistyukhin stated at the Bank of Russia Financial Congress that the law on crypto market regulation could come into force on September 1. After that, market participants will be given a transitional period until July 1, 2027, to obtain licenses and adapt their processes. From this date, administrative and criminal liability for illegal cryptocurrency operations should come into effect. The first operations under the new regime are expected by the end of this year or the beginning of next year.
Ethereum ecosystem: Institutional bridge
An independent non-profit organization, Ethereum Institutional, has been launched within the Ethereum ecosystem. Its goal is to promote the network among banks and asset managers, as well as to provide institutions with an independent entry point for evaluating Ethereum in the context of tokenization, stablecoins, and on-chain infrastructure. Anchor sponsors include BitMine Immersion Technologies, Sharplink, Inc., and ConsenSys CEO Joseph Lubin.
Expert opinion: Bitcoin's recovery above $62,500 amid continued ETF outflows and extreme fear in the market is a classic sign of accumulation. However, I consider the entry into force of MiCA to be the key event of the week. This is not just a regulatory milestone, but the beginning of a new era for the European crypto market, which will likely lead to consolidation and increased trust from institutions. Russia, in turn, demonstrates readiness to create its own clear legal framework, which is positive for the legal circulation of digital assets in the long term.