The past week was marked by a significant rebound of bitcoin from local lows, the entry into force of full MiCA regulation in the European Union, and the specification of timelines for launching crypto regulation in Russia. Let's examine the key events in detail.
Bitcoin Recovers After June Slump
The leading cryptocurrency, which experienced its worst month in four years, began the week with a sharp recovery. On July 1, the price bounced from a two-year low around $57,700 and confidently surpassed the $60,000 mark. The upward momentum was triggered, in part, by statements from Fed Governor Kevin Warsh about persistently high inflation in the US. Despite sell-offs in chipmaker stocks, bitcoin continued to rise, reaching $63,300 on Binance on Saturday, July 4. By the end of the week, the price corrected to $62,700, corresponding to a weekly gain of 4.6%.
Interestingly, several altcoins in the top 10 showed even more impressive dynamics. Solana gained 12.7%, Ethereum rose 11.7%, and the Hyperliquid token increased by more than 10%. Nevertheless, outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs continued for the eighth consecutive week, totaling $526.6 million. However, on July 2, a record inflow of $221.7 million was recorded, which may indicate a shift in sentiment among institutional investors. Ethereum-based funds also lost $13.7 million over the week. The Fear and Greed Index, although rising from 18 to 23 points, remains in the extreme fear zone. The total market capitalization recovered to $2.17 trillion, with bitcoin dominance falling to 57.9% and Ethereum's share rising to 9.8%.
MiCA: Transition Period Ends, a New Era Begins
On July 1, 2026, the transition period for cryptocurrency platforms under the MiCA regulation expired in the European Union. From this date, all companies that have not obtained a license are required to cease servicing clients from the EU. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) confirmed that operating without authorization is now a violation of the law. According to the ESMA register, by the end of the transition period, there were 244 authorized crypto service providers in the EU and EEA. In the final days, several companies obtained licenses in Italy, France, Malta, and Spain. Among the approved platforms with notable spot liquidity are Kraken, Coinbase, and Bitstamp.
Notably, the European Commission has already initiated a review of the regulation, launching public and targeted consultations. The goal is to assess how well MiCA aligns with current market developments and international regulatory practices. This is an important signal: the regulator understands that static rules cannot effectively govern such a dynamic industry.
Russia: Specific Timelines and Transition Period
First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia Vladimir Chistyukhin, speaking at the Bank of Russia Financial Congress, outlined key dates for the implementation of crypto regulation. The law on regulating the crypto market may come into force on September 1. After that, market participants will be granted a transition period until July 1, 2027, to gather documents, obtain licenses, and restructure internal processes. From this same date, administrative and criminal liability for illegal cryptocurrency operations should come into effect. Chistyukhin expects the first operations under the new regime to occur by the end of this year or the beginning of next. This is undoubtedly a positive signal for the market, which is finally receiving long-awaited legal certainty.
Ethereum Ecosystem and Other Events
In the Ethereum ecosystem, an independent non-profit organization, Ethereum Institutional, was launched, aimed at promoting the network among banks and asset managers. StarkWare presented a roadmap to protect StarkNet from quantum threats, an important step for ensuring the long-term security of L2 solutions.
Among other notable events: Strategy's valuation fell below the value of its bitcoin reserves for the first time, Meta introduced AI for decoding brain activity, and the Russian Ministry of Digital Development will become the single regulator for AI. It is also worth noting that Loopring announced the closure of its DEX, and JPMorgan criticized Strategy's decision to sell bitcoin.
My analysis: The week showed that the market, despite ongoing risks (ETF outflows, investor fear), has sufficient strength to recover. The key factors remain the macroeconomic backdrop and regulatory actions. The end of the MiCA transition period and the start of concrete steps toward regulation in Russia are long-awaited events that could act as a catalyst for a new wave of institutional adoption. However, investors should remain cautious: fear indicators are still high, and full regulatory clarity will not emerge until next year.