The Bitcoin market is sending a unique signal: 14 out of 17 key on-chain metrics are simultaneously in the "Bottom" phase. This is an extremely rare case of analytical convergence, which, based on my observations, only occurs when fundamental signs of asset undervaluation fully align.
I analyzed a panel of 17 indicators, and the picture is striking. The adjusted MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio is recorded at 19. This means that Bitcoin's market capitalization is only 1.9 times the value of coins at their last movement on the network — historically a zone of deep undervaluation.
In the same phase are the Balanced Price at level 20 and the Delta Price at level 12. These fair value models historically point to zones where the asset is considered undervalued. The MVRV Z-Score has dropped to 6, demonstrating a statistically significant deviation of the market from its baseline valuation.
Particular attention should be paid to the extremely low values of the Percentage Supply in Profit and Percentage UTXOs in Profit — both at zero. This indicates that almost all coins are near the breakeven zone. The Long-Term Supply MVRV at level 10, the base MVRV ratio at 19, and the Realized Price at 19 confirm this picture.
Three metrics remain in the bearish phase: LTS NUPL (unrealized profit/loss of long-term holders) at level 33, the Market Cap To Thermocap Ratio at 39, and the overall NUPL at 37. However, their 30-day dynamics are negative — LTS NUPL decreased by 3 points, while NUPL and the ratio to thermocap each dropped by 2 points. This indicates a gradual slide toward the bottom.
Notably, short-term metrics, on the other hand, are showing growth: the realized price of short-term supply (STS) rose by 3 points, the short-term MVRV supply also increased by 3, and STS NUPL showed the most significant rise — by 9 points. This may indicate that short-term holders are beginning to realize losses, a classic sign of capitulation.
My analysis: The convergence of 14 out of 17 indicators in the bottom zone is an exceptionally rare event that I have only observed at key moments in market cycles. However, the three remaining bearish metrics require confirmation. If they also transition to the bottom phase in the coming weeks, this will be a powerful signal for a trend reversal. The market is close to forming a price minimum, but full confidence will only come after the remaining indicators consolidate.