The inflow of stablecoins to crypto exchanges has dropped to its lowest level in the past year and a half. According to my data, this indicator reflects a fundamental weakening of buying demand and deprives Bitcoin of the necessary liquidity for a sustained upward movement.
The average daily volume of stablecoin inflows to all centralized platforms is currently only 21,557 transactions. This is 56.25% below recent peak values. For comparison, in mid-2025, when Bitcoin was showing strong growth, daily inflows consistently ranged from 100,000 to 280,000 transactions. It was this flow of "fresh" capital that created the buying pressure that pushed the price of the leading cryptocurrency to all-time highs.
Now, this "fuel" has virtually dried up. Stablecoins on exchanges are not just numbers, but capital ready for immediate deployment into assets. High inflows signal new demand, while the current decline indicates that buyers have adopted a wait-and-see stance. At the time of analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $62,397, notably below the all-time high reached in the fall of 2025.
Additional Warning Signal: The ROC Indicator
Another important indicator—the Rate of Change (ROC) of stablecoin inflows—confirms the absence of a sustained recovery. In May 2026, we observed a short-term spike, but it proved isolated and failed to reverse the downward trend. Since then, the ROC has moved sideways, indicating a lack of fundamental prerequisites for a return of buying activity.
Two Scenarios for the Market
Based on the current dynamics, I identify two likely paths for development.
The first is bearish. If stablecoin inflows remain below the 30,000 transactions per day mark over the next two weeks, Bitcoin will likely retest the support zone of $58,000–$60,000. This would confirm that the market has not yet found a bottom.
The second is a reversal signal. This would only materialize if there is a sustained increase in inflows above 80,000–100,000 transactions. Such a recovery would be the first real sign of buyers returning and could trigger a notable rise in the BTC price.
My expert opinion: Without a resumption of stablecoin inflows, any current Bitcoin growth will be speculative and short-term in nature. The market is currently in a "waiting" phase, and the key question is whether capital can return before the bears firmly establish themselves below $60,000. As of now, I see no prerequisites for a trend change.