The Bitcoin market is sending a signal that doesn't happen often: 14 out of 17 on-chain indicators tracking network health are simultaneously pointing to the formation of a price bottom. This rare convergence suggests we are at a point where fundamental metrics have aligned in a unified "bullish" sentiment.
The analytical toolkit I use in my work shows that most key indicators are in the "Bottom" phase. Among them is the adjusted MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, which stands at 19. This indicator compares Bitcoin's current market value to the average price at which coins last moved on the network. A value of 19 indicates that the market is at historically low levels of undervaluation.
The Balanced Price at 20 and the Delta Price at 12 also confirm this thesis. Both of these fair value models have historically pointed to zones where the asset is considered undervalued. The MVRV Z-Score has dropped to 6, statistically demonstrating how far the market has deviated from its baseline valuation.
The Long-Term Supply MVRV is at 10, the base MVRV ratio is 19, and the Realized Price is 19. The latter indicator reflects the average purchase price of all coins on the network, and its current value suggests that the average holder is on the verge of breakeven.
Some metrics show extremely low values. The Percentage Supply in Profit and the Percentage UTXOs in Profit have dropped to 0. This means that virtually all coins are near the breakeven zone — a classic sign of capitulation by short-term speculators.
Other price benchmarks also remain in the "bottom" phase: the realized price for long-term supply (LTS) at 6, for short-term supply (STS) at 24, as well as the short-term supply MVRV at 15, STS NUPL at 13, and the Top Price model at 14.
Bearish Signals and Monthly Dynamics
However, not all indicators have reached a bottom. Three of them are still in the bearish phase. These are LTS NUPL (unrealized profit/loss for long-term holders) with a value of 33, the Market Cap To Thermocap Ratio at 39, and the Net Unrealized P&L (NUPL) at 37.
The NUPL indicator reflects whether the market as a whole is in profit or loss. Values close to zero traditionally indicate a zone where past sell-offs have more often fizzled out rather than deepened. The Thermocap ratio compares market capitalization to the cumulative revenue of miners over all time.
The 30-day dynamics for most metrics are negative or neutral, indicating a gradual slide toward the bottom. Over the month, LTS NUPL decreased the most — by 3 points, followed by NUPL and the Thermocap ratio — each down by 2 points.
At the same time, some indicators increased over the month. The realized price for short-term supply (STS) rose by 3 points, the short-term supply MVRV also rose by 3, and STS NUPL showed the most notable increase — by 9 points.
My expert conclusion: The alignment of 14 out of 17 indicators in the bottom zone is not just a technical curiosity, but a powerful fundamental signal. The market has passed the capitulation stage and is in the accumulation phase. The remaining bearish metrics are likely lagging indicators of macro uncertainty. If they also transition to the "Bottom" phase in the coming weeks, we will get one of the strongest confirmations of a trend reversal in recent years.