The Bitcoin market is approaching a critical point. An analysis of 17 key on-chain indicators reveals an extremely rare picture: 14 of them are simultaneously in the "Bottom" phase. Such a degree of signal convergence is an exceptional event that, in the past, has preceded the formation of price lows.
The current situation on the on-chain dashboard looks almost like a textbook example. The adjusted MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio is fixed at 19, comparing Bitcoin's market capitalization to the price of the last coin movement. In the same zone are the Balanced Price at 20 and the Delta Price at 12 — fair value models below which the asset has historically been considered undervalued.
Extreme Values and the Break-Even Zone
Metrics showing extremely low values deserve special attention. The Percentage Supply in Profit and Percentage UTXOs in Profit have dropped to zero. This means that virtually all coins are near the break-even zone — a classic sign of seller exhaustion.
Other price benchmarks remain in the "Bottom" phase: the Long-Term Supply Realized Price (LTS) at 6, Short-Term Supply Realized Price (STS) at 24, Short-Term MVRV of Supply at 15, STS NUPL at 13, and Top Price model at 14. The MVRV Z-Score has dropped to 6, which statistically indicates a significant deviation of the market from its baseline valuation.
Bearish Signals and Monthly Dynamics
However, not all indicators have reached the bottom. Three of them remain in the bearish phase: LTS NUPL (Unrealized Profit/Loss for Long-Term Holders) at 33, Market Cap To Thermocap Ratio at 39, and Net Unrealized P&L (NUPL) at 37. NUPL values close to zero traditionally indicate a zone where past sell-offs have more often fizzled out rather than deepened.
Over the last 30 days, the dynamics for most metrics are negative or neutral, indicating a gradual slide toward the bottom. The largest monthly decline was in LTS NUPL — down by 3 points, followed by NUPL and the Thermocap Ratio — each down by 2 points. At the same time, some indicators rose: Short-Term Supply Realized Price (STS) increased by 3 points, Short-Term MVRV of Supply also by 3 points, and STS NUPL showed the most notable growth — by 9 points.
My expert conclusion: The coincidence of 14 out of 17 indicators in the bottom zone is not just a statistical anomaly, but a powerful signal that the market is close to a reversal. However, the remaining bearish metrics, especially NUPL and LTS NUPL, require confirmation. If they transition into the bottom phase in the coming weeks, the likelihood of forming a sustainable low will sharply increase. Investors should closely monitor the dynamics of these three indicators — they will be the final "key" to a trend reversal.