Key on-chain metrics of Bitcoin are showing patterns characteristic of the final stage of a bear cycle. The data indicates that the market is approaching the absolute bottom zone, repeating the dynamics of 2022. My analysis focuses on two interrelated indicators: the share of supply in profit and the prolonged decline in hashrate and mining difficulty.
Share of Supply in Profit: Bearish Signal Persists
The indicator of the share of bitcoins in profit has dropped to 51.9%. This means that almost half of all circulating coins are currently at a loss. Historically, a level below 55% corresponds to the bear market phase and the bottom zone. Since June last year, the indicator has been steadily holding in this zone, and the downward trend has continued since October 2025.
The current value is approaching the critical mark of 44%, which marked the absolute bottom in 2022. If we apply the historical benchmark, the consolidation phase could extend until September-October of this year, as was the case in the previous cycle when the bottom formed over about eight months.
Record Compression of Hashrate and Difficulty
The second most important signal is the unprecedentedly long decline in hashrate and mining difficulty. After a sharp crash in January-February, both indicators continue to decline within a global structural trend. The key difference between the current correction and previous ones is its duration.
Historical declines lasted 64 days (May-July 2021) and 86 days (April-July 2024). The current decline has stretched to 234 days — almost seven months of continuous compression. For Bitcoin, this is an unfavorable signal, reflecting a fundamental weakening of the network. However, there is also a flip side: if a sustained upward trend takes hold in these metrics, it will become a powerful medium-term and long-term signal of renewed interest and network expansion.
Thus, both holders (through the share of supply in profit) and the network's foundation (through hashrate) are now working in unison, pointing to the bottom phase of the cycle. In my practice, such a coincidence of signals is one of the most reliable markers of an approaching reversal.
Expert Opinion from Cryptalist: The coincidence of two independent groups of on-chain data is a rare and strong signal. The share of supply in profit and hashrate rarely move synchronously toward extremes. If history repeats itself, the current zone could be the last opportunity for entry before a new bull cycle. However, the key trigger is a hashrate reversal. Without it, any rally will only be a temporary correction.