The past week was marked by a significant market recovery after the June downturn, as well as key regulatory events in the European Union and Russia. The leading cryptocurrency managed to bounce back from local lows, while the European MiCA regulation entered its final phase, closing the transitional period for crypto platforms.

Bitcoin Recovers Losses

The beginning of July was a phase of active recovery for Bitcoin. After falling to a nearly two-year low around $57,700 at the end of June, the price sharply reversed upward, breaking through the psychologically important level of $60,000 on July 1. The key catalyst was statements by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh about persistently high inflation in the US, which reduced expectations for an imminent easing of monetary policy.

The upward momentum proved so strong that the price continued to rise even amid sell-offs in technology giant stocks, especially chip manufacturers. By Saturday, July 4, Bitcoin reached $63,300 on Binance, followed by a slight correction to $62,700. The weekly gain amounted to 4.6%. Notably, altcoins in the top 10 showed even more impressive dynamics: Solana rose by 12.7%, Ethereum by 11.7%, and the Hyperliquid token gained over 10%. This indicates a capital shift from Bitcoin into riskier assets, which is often observed in the early stages of a market recovery.

Despite the positive price dynamics, fundamental indicators remain mixed. Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs continued for the eighth consecutive week, totaling $526.6 million. However, there were surges in inflows during the week—for example, on July 2, products attracted $221.7 million in a single session. A similar picture is seen with Ethereum funds: a minus of $13.7 million for the week. The Fear and Greed Index is still in the "extreme fear" zone, although it rose from 18 to 23 points. The total market capitalization recovered from $2.07 trillion to $2.17 trillion, with Bitcoin's dominance decreasing from 58.1% to 57.9%, while Ethereum's share jumped from 9.2% to 9.8%.

Europe Closes MiCA Transitional Period

July 1, 2026, became a historic day for the European crypto market—the transitional period of the MiCA regulation expired. From this date, all crypto platforms serving clients in the EU are required to hold a valid license. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) made it clear that operating without authorization is now a direct violation of the law.

According to the ESMA register, by the end of the transitional period, there were 244 authorized crypto service providers in the EU and EEA. In the final days, companies in Italy, France, Malta, and Spain received licenses. Among the approved platforms with notable spot liquidity are Kraken, Coinbase, and Bitstamp. Notably, the European Commission has already launched a process to review the regulation, initiating public and targeted consultations to assess its relevance in a rapidly changing market.

Russia: Crypto Regulation from September 1

An important regulatory event also took place in Russia. First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, Vladimir Chistyukhin, stated at the Bank of Russia's Financial Congress that the law on regulating the crypto market could come into force as early as September 1. After that, market participants will be given a transitional period until July 1, 2027, to prepare: collecting documents, obtaining licenses, and restructuring internal processes.

From the same date, July 1, 2027, administrative and criminal liability for illegal cryptocurrency operations should come into effect. Chistyukhin noted that if the law and by-laws are adopted in a timely manner, the first operations under the new regime can be expected by the end of this year or the beginning of next. This is an important signal for a market that has long been in a gray zone.

Other Events of the Week

  • An independent non-profit organization, Ethereum Institutional, was launched in the Ethereum ecosystem to promote the network among institutional investors.
  • StarkWare presented a roadmap for transitioning StarkNet to post-quantum cryptography, which could set a precedent for the entire industry.
  • The Russian Ministry of Digital Development will become the single regulator for AI in the country.
  • Strategy's valuation fell below the value of its Bitcoin reserves for the first time, drawing criticism from JPMorgan.
  • Buterin outlined new priorities for the Ethereum roadmap.

My view: Bitcoin's recovery above $62,500 amid continued ETF outflows and extreme fear in the market is a classic sign that "smart money" is already buying into the panic. However, consolidation below $65,000 and the weakness of altcoins, except for a few leaders, indicate that a full-fledged bullish momentum has not yet formed. Regulatory news from the EU and Russia, on the contrary, creates a long-term positive backdrop, legitimizing the industry and attracting institutional capital. Keep an eye on the $60,000 level—a break below it would be a worrying signal.