The Bitcoin market is demonstrating an extremely rare analytical convergence. According to on-chain indicator monitoring data, 14 out of 17 key metrics are simultaneously in the "Bottom" phase. This is not just a broad consensus, but a unique alignment of signals that, based on my observations, historically precedes the formation of significant price lows.
Such a level of unity among such diverse indicators is an extraordinary phenomenon. I analyze this data within the context of the full cycle, and the current picture instills in me a confident bullish sentiment, unlike the bearish positions at previous highs.
The Bottom is Confirmed by Multiple Models
In the "Bottom" zone is the adjusted MVRV ratio (market value to realized value) at level 19. It shows that the current Bitcoin price has practically equaled the average purchase price of all coins moved on the network. This is a classic sign of undervaluation.
Following it into the same phase are the "Balanced Price" model (20) and the "Delta Price" (12). Both of these fair value indicators historically point to zones where the asset is considered oversold. The MVRV Z-Score indicator has dropped to level 6, which statistically signals an extreme deviation of price from the underlying value.
Long-term metrics deserve special attention: Long-Term Supply MVRV (10), base MVRV (19), and realized price (19). The latter records the average purchase price of all coins on the network — reaching it is almost always accompanied by capitulation and a subsequent trend reversal.
Extreme Values and Bearish Remnants
Some metrics have reached zero values. The Percentage Supply in Profit and the Percentage UTXOs in Profit have dropped to 0. This means that almost all coins are on the verge of breakeven — typical market behavior at the bottom.
However, not all indicators have reached consensus. Three of them are still in the bearish phase: LTS NUPL (33), the capitalization to thermocap ratio (39), and the overall NUPL (37). The NUPL indicator reflects whether the market as a whole is in profit or loss. Its values, close to zero, indicate a zone where past sell-offs are exhausting rather than deepening.
The dynamics over the last 30 days for most metrics are negative or neutral, suggesting a gradual slide towards the bottom. The LTS NUPL (-3 points) saw the strongest decline over the month, along with NUPL and the capitalization to thermocap ratio (-2 points each).
At the same time, short-term metrics are showing growth: the realized price for short-term supply (STS) rose by 3 points, the short-term MVRV supply also by 3 points, and STS NUPL showed the most notable increase — by 9 points. This indicates that short-term holders are starting to lock in profits, which is often a precursor to a reversal.
My Analysis and Conclusions
The alignment of 14 out of 17 indicators in the bottom zone is not just a statistical anomaly, but a powerful fundamental signal. The market has passed through a phase of capitulation and is currently in an accumulation stage. The remaining bearish metrics (LTS NUPL, NUPL, and the thermocap ratio) are lagging indicators that, I believe, will soon follow the majority and also transition into the "Bottom" phase. Further dynamics will confirm whether this was the true minimum, but the current data configuration is one of the most convincing over recent cycles. Investors should closely monitor for confirmation of a reversal, but ignoring this signal would be a professional mistake.