Analysis of the current market conditions indicates that Bitcoin could become the main victim of a potential reversal in the U.S. stock market. Several independent experts agree: if U.S. stocks begin to correct, the leading cryptocurrency risks falling to $10,000.
Each analyst views the situation from their own perspective, but their conclusions form a unified picture. This involves a century-long stock market cycle, record capital inflows into U.S. stocks, and Bitcoin's critical dependence on the dynamics of traditional assets. The U.S. securities market is in a late, but not yet final, growth phase, and BTC finds itself hostage to this movement.
The Century-Long S&P 500 Cycle
Research into long-term patterns shows that the S&P 500 index has repeated the same scenario for a hundred years: a technology boom lasts about 24–25 years, followed by a decade of sideways movement. History knows two vivid examples: the electronics and automation boom starting in 1942 (growth of 2536% over 24 years, then 9 years of stagnation) and the PC and internet boom starting in 1975 (growth of 2665% over 25 years, again 9 years of stagnation).
The current cycle, which began in 2009 with the era of smartphones, e-commerce, and artificial intelligence, would logically end around 2033. The bull market has roughly seven years left, but historically, the steepest growth occurs at the end. And such markets die not from old age, but from euphoria.
Record Capital Inflows into U.S. Stocks
Simultaneously, there is unprecedented demand for U.S. stocks from global investors. The cumulative inflow from global investment funds since the start of the year has reached about 2.5% of their total assets under management. This figure has more than doubled since May and significantly exceeds the average level for 2002–2025, when an outflow of about 0.3% was recorded by this date.
Experts call the current pace of capital inflows unprecedented—it has already exceeded the full-year result typical for the average half of years since 2002. This means interest in risk assets remains extremely high, but the concentration of capital makes the market vulnerable.
Bitcoin as a Hostage to the Stock Market
The stability of all commodity and crypto assets directly depends on whether U.S. securities continue to rise. If the stock market fails to hold above current levels, Bitcoin will likely move closer to $10,000, gold will retreat to $3,000 per ounce, and WTI oil will fall below $50 per barrel.
Notably, over the year to July 4, the total return of the S&P 500, gold, and copper increased by about 21–25%. Bitcoin, however, lost about 40% over the same period, while oil remained roughly flat. This demonstrates that the cryptocurrency is weakening even against the backdrop of a strong stock market.
Comparing these observations, a general logic emerges: provided the S&P 500 cycle has entered a late euphoric phase and record capital inflows support growth, Bitcoin could follow stocks upward in the short term. However, any reversal in the stock market will hit the cryptocurrency hardest—and Bitcoin's current underperformance makes it especially vulnerable at the first sign of a sentiment shift.
My professional opinion: The market is overheated, and Bitcoin, despite its narrative independence, remains a high-risk asset tied to risk appetite. If the stock market begins a correction, BTC could lose 50–70% from current levels faster than most investors are willing to admit. Diversification and hedging are not just a recommendation but a necessity in current conditions.