The Bitcoin market is displaying an extremely rare analytical picture: 14 out of 17 on-chain indicators tracked by leading analysts are simultaneously pointing to the formation of a price bottom. Such a massive convergence of signals is an extraordinary event that, in the past, has only preceded the most significant trend reversals.
The majority of fundamental metrics are currently in the "Bottom" phase. The adjusted MVRV ratio (market value to realized value) has dropped to a level of 19, which historically corresponds to an undervaluation zone. The Balanced Price and Delta Price — fair value models — have also recorded values of 20 and 12, respectively, signaling that the asset is trading below its objective valuation.
Of particular note is the MVRV Z-Score indicator, which has fallen to 6. This indicator statistically shows how far the current market price has deviated from the average acquisition price of all coins (the realized price). Such low values are traditionally associated with the zone of maximum fear and capitulation.
Profitability indicators are also showing extreme levels. The Percentage Supply in Profit and the Percentage UTXOs in Profit have dropped to zero. This means that the vast majority of coins are near the breakeven point — a classic sign of seller exhaustion.
Bearish Metrics and Monthly Dynamics
Not all 17 indicators have reached a bottom. Three of them — LTS NUPL (Long-Term Holder Unrealized Profit/Loss) at a value of 33, the Market Cap to Thermocap Ratio at 39, and the overall NUPL (37) — remain in the bearish phase. NUPL values close to zero indicate a zone where past sell-offs typically exhausted themselves rather than deepened. The Market Cap to Thermocap Ratio, which compares market capitalization to the cumulative income of miners over all time, also requires further decline for a full confirmation of the bottom.
The dynamics over the last 30 days for most metrics are negative or neutral, suggesting a gradual slide toward the bottom. The strongest declines over the month were seen in LTS NUPL (down 3 points), as well as NUPL and the Market Cap to Thermocap Ratio (each down 2 points). However, some indicators have risen instead. The Short-Term Supply (STS) price and Short-Term MVRV each gained 3 points, while STS NUPL showed the most notable increase — up 9 points. This indicates that short-term holders are beginning to realize losses and exit positions, which is the final stage of a bearish cycle.
My analysis: The consensus of 14 out of 17 on-chain indicators is not just a coincidence, but a powerful statistical signal. History shows that such a concentration of bullish signals at the bottom has preceded the start of new major upward trends. The remaining three bearish metrics will likely follow the majority in the coming weeks, providing the final confirmation of a reversal. The market is in the final accumulation phase, and current levels may prove to be the best entry point for long-term investors.