The Bitcoin market has entered a phase of rare analytical convergence. As many as 14 out of 17 key on-chain indicators tracked by leading analysts have synchronously shifted into the "Bottom" zone. This is not just a broad consensus among metrics—it is an anomalous coincidence of signals that, according to expert estimates, has historically preceded the formation of significant price lows.
An analyst under the pseudonym KillaXBT emphasizes that at market peaks, he maintained a bearish stance, but now, under such a confluence of circumstances, he has adopted a decidedly bullish view of the asset. Such a high level of agreement among metrics is a rare phenomenon and, as a rule, indicates the exhaustion of sellers and the proximity of a trend reversal.
Detailed Breakdown of the On-Chain Dashboard
In the "Bottom" phase are fundamental metrics such as the adjusted MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio at level 19, the Balanced Price at mark 20, and the Delta Price at value 12. These fair value models historically signal that the asset is undervalued. The MVRV Z-Score has dropped to 6, which in statistical terms indicates an extreme deviation of the market price from the average acquisition price of all coins.
Also classified as bottom are the Long-Term Supply MVRV at level 10, the base MVRV ratio at 19, and the Realized Price at 19. The latter reflects the average purchase price of all coins in the network. A number of metrics show truly extreme values: the Percentage Supply in Profit and the Percentage UTXOs in Profit have fallen to 0. This means that the vast majority of coins are at or near the break-even point, which is a classic sign of capitulation.
In this same phase remain other price benchmarks: the Realized Price for Long-Term Supply (LTS) at 6, for Short-Term Supply (STS) at 24, as well as the Short-Term Supply MVRV at 15, STS NUPL (unrealized profit/loss of short-term holders) at 13, and the Top Price model at 14.
Bearish Signals and Monthly Dynamics
However, not all indicators have reached the bottom. Three metrics are still in the Bearish phase. These are LTS NUPL (unrealized profit/loss of long-term holders) at level 33, the Market Cap To Thermocap Ratio at mark 39, and the Net Unrealized P&L (NUPL) at 37. NUPL values close to zero indicate a zone where past sell-offs were more likely to exhaust themselves than deepen. The Thermocap ratio compares market capitalization with the cumulative revenue of miners over all time.
The 30-day dynamics for most metrics are negative or neutral, confirming a gradual slide toward the bottom. The largest monthly decline was in LTS NUPL—down by 3 points—as well as NUPL and the Thermocap ratio—each down by 2 points. At the same time, some indicators rose: the Realized Price for Short-Term Supply (STS) increased by 3 points, the Short-Term Supply MVRV also by 3 points, and STS NUPL showed the most notable growth—by 9 points.
The convergence of 14 out of 17 indicators in the bottom zone is an exceptionally strong signal that, in the past, has preceded the start of new bullish phases. The remaining bearish metrics will likely complete their movement to the bottom in the coming weeks, confirming the overall signal. From my perspective, the current situation represents one of the most compelling entry points for long-term investors in the past year. The market, it seems, is completing its accumulation phase.