The past week was marked by a significant market recovery, the entry into force of the final provisions of the European MiCA regulation, and important statements from the Russian regulator. Let's break down the key events in detail.
Bitcoin Recovers After June Crash
The leading cryptocurrency showed a confident bounce from its local bottom. After the worst June in four years, when the price dropped to nearly $57,700, Bitcoin surpassed the $60,000 mark on July 1. The upward movement intensified following comments from Fed Governor Kevin Warsh about persistently high inflation in the US. By Saturday, July 4, the rate reached $63,300 on Binance, but then corrected to $62,700. For the week, the gain was 4.6%.
Notably, altcoins in the top 10 significantly outpaced the flagship in growth rates: Solana added 12.7%, Ethereum — 11.7%, and the Hyperliquid token rose by more than 10%. The total market capitalization recovered from $2.07 trillion to $2.17 trillion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's dominance decreased from 58.1% to 57.9%, while Ethereum's share jumped from 9.2% to 9.8%.
Despite the positive price dynamics, outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs continued for the eighth consecutive week, totaling $526.6 million. However, on July 2, the products recorded an inflow of $221.7 million, which could signal a shift in sentiment among large investors. The Fear and Greed Index, although rising from 18 to 23 points, remains in the extreme fear zone, indicating persistent market nervousness.
Europe Closes MiCA Transition Period
On July 1, 2026, the transition period for cryptocurrency platforms under the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation officially expired in the European Union. All companies that failed to obtain a license are required to cease servicing EU clients. According to ESMA, by this time, there were 244 authorized crypto service providers in the register. Among the approved platforms with notable spot liquidity are Kraken, Coinbase, and Bitstamp. Notably, the European Commission has already initiated a review of MiCA, launching public consultations to assess its relevance in light of market developments and international regulation.
Russia: Crypto Regulation Starts September 1
Vladimir Chistyukhin, First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia, outlined key dates for the implementation of crypto regulation in the country at the Bank of Russia Financial Congress. The law may come into force on September 1 of this year. After that, a transition period will begin for market participants until July 1, 2027, during which they must gather documents, obtain new licenses, and restructure internal processes. From the same date, administrative and criminal liability for illegal cryptocurrency operations will take effect. The central bank deputy chairman expects the first operations under the new regime by the end of this year or the beginning of next year.
Expert Summary
The week showed that the market remains extremely sensitive to macroeconomic signals, but at the same time shows signs of a local bottom. The full implementation of MiCA is a double-edged sword: on one hand, it legitimizes the industry in Europe; on the other, it creates serious barriers for players unprepared for compliance. The Russian vector, conversely, promises long-awaited certainty, albeit with fairly tight deadlines. Investors should closely monitor the dynamics of ETF flows: if the weekly outflow turns into an inflow, it will be the first bullish signal after a prolonged correction.