The past week was marked by a confident recovery of the first cryptocurrency, the end of the MiCA transitional period in the European Union, and the specification of timelines for regulating the crypto market in Russia. Let's break down the key events.
Bitcoin Recovers Losses: Rebound Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty
The beginning of July brought a long-awaited bounce for bitcoin. After the worst June in four years, when the price dipped to $57,700, the first cryptocurrency surpassed the $60,000 mark on July 1. The key catalyst was comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh about persistently high inflation in the US, which dampened expectations of an imminent easing of monetary policy.
The upward trend persisted even amid sell-offs in chipmaker stocks. By Saturday, July 4, the price reached a local high of $63,300 on Binance, before correcting to $62,700. For the week, the gain was 4.6%. However, altcoins showed more impressive dynamics: Solana (+12.7%), Ethereum (+11.7%), and the Hyperliquid token (+10%) significantly outperformed the flagship.
Despite the positive price picture, outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs continued for the eighth consecutive week, reaching $526.6 million. The exception was Tuesday, July 2, when the products attracted $221.7 million. A similar situation was observed with Ethereum ETFs, from which investors withdrew $13.7 million over the week. The Fear and Greed Index, although rising from 18 to 23 points, remains in the extreme fear zone, indicating persistent market nervousness.
The total market capitalization recovered from $2.07 trillion to $2.17 trillion. Notably, bitcoin's dominance decreased from 58.1% to 57.9%, while Ethereum's share jumped from 9.2% to 9.8%. This suggests a capital shift into altcoins and a growing risk appetite.
MiCA in Action: End of Transitional Period and Start of Review
July 1, 2026, became a landmark date for the crypto industry in the European Union—the transitional period of the MiCA regulation expired. Now, all cryptocurrency platforms serving European clients are required to have a license from the regulator. Those who failed to obtain one must cease their operations in the region.
According to the ESMA register, by the end of the transitional period, there were 244 authorized crypto service providers in the EU and EEA. In the final days, companies in Italy, France, Malta, and Spain received licenses. Among the approved platforms with notable liquidity are Kraken, Coinbase, and Bitstamp. Meanwhile, the European Commission has already launched consultations on revising the regulation, assessing its relevance in a rapidly changing market.
Russia: Central Bank Outlines Timelines for Crypto Regulation Launch
Vladimir Chistyukhin, First Deputy Governor of the Bank of Russia, stated at the Bank of Russia Financial Congress that the law on regulating the crypto market could come into force on September 1. After that, market participants will be given a transitional period until July 1, 2027, to prepare: gathering documents, obtaining licenses, and restructuring internal processes.
From this date, administrative and criminal liability for illegal cryptocurrency operations should also come into effect. Chistyukhin expects the first operations under the new regime to occur by the end of this year or the beginning of next. This is an important signal for a market that has long been in legal uncertainty.
Ethereum Ecosystem and Other News
In the Ethereum ecosystem, an independent non-profit organization, Ethereum Institutional, has been launched, aimed at promoting the network among institutional investors. The organization will work with L2 networks and projects, providing banks and asset managers with an independent entry point for tokenization, stablecoins, and on-chain infrastructure.
It is also worth noting that StarkWare presented a roadmap to protect StarkNet from quantum threats, and Strategy's company valuation fell below the value of its bitcoin reserves for the first time.
Analytical Commentary: The current bitcoin recovery is more technical in nature and is not supported by fundamental capital inflows. Although the bounce from $57,700 was expected, continued ETF outflows and high levels of fear in the market indicate that a sustainable bullish trend has not yet formed. A key driver for further growth could be either a Fed rate cut or positive news from the institutional sector, such as the approval of new ETFs or major corporate purchases. MiCA in the EU, on the other hand, creates a long-term framework for legal operations, which could attract conservative investors in the long run.