Key on-chain indicators for Bitcoin show a frightening similarity to levels observed during the 2022 crash. The supply in profit has dropped to 51.9%, entering the "bear market" zone, while mining difficulty and hashrate are experiencing a record-long decline of around seven months. Taken together, these data suggest that the market is likely approaching the final phase of the current cycle.
Analyzing two interconnected but fundamentally different metrics provides a more complete picture. The first—supply in profit—reflects holder sentiment and the cycle stage. The second—hashrate and mining difficulty dynamics—is a fundamental indicator of network health and security. When both of these indicators simultaneously signal a bearish phase, it points to a deep and prolonged correction.
Supply in Profit: On the Verge of the Bear Zone
The "Supply in Profit" metric shows the percentage of all circulating bitcoins that are currently in profit. Historically, values above 80% correspond to a bull market and euphoria, the 55–80% range to a transitional phase, and levels of 55% and below to a bear market and bottom phase. Currently, the indicator stands at 51.9%, and since June it has been steadily holding in this "red" zone.
The downward trend has persisted since October 2025, and the metric is approaching the level of around 44%, which marked the absolute bottom of the 2022 bear market. In the previous cycle, this bottom phase lasted about eight months. Applying this historical benchmark to current data, the current phase could extend until September or October. Thus, on-chain data confidently points to a move toward the final bottom.
Record Decline in Hashrate and Difficulty: Unprecedented Duration
The second alarming signal is the dynamics of mining difficulty and network hashrate. Both indicators continue to decline within a global structural trend following sharp drops in January and February. The key difference in the current situation is the duration of the decline. Historically, continuous declines in hashrate and difficulty lasted 64 days (May–July 2021) and 86 days (April–July 2024).
The current decline has stretched to 234 days—about seven months of continuous contraction. For Bitcoin, such a prolonged decline in fundamental network security indicators is an extremely unfavorable signal. However, analysts also note the flip side: if a sustained upward trend takes hold in these indicators, it will become an important medium- and long-term signal of renewed interest and network expansion.
My comment: The coincidence of two independent indicators—holder sentiment and fundamental network stability—is rare. It indicates that the market is truly experiencing not just a correction, but a deep revaluation. The duration of the current hashrate decline already exceeds all historical precedents, which may point to structural changes in the mining industry. However, it is precisely in such moments that the foundations for a new bull cycle are laid. Patience is the main asset right now.