The Bitcoin market is exhibiting an extremely rare analytical phenomenon: 14 out of 17 key on-chain indicators have simultaneously entered the "bottom" phase. This is not just a broad correlation of data, but a unique convergence that, according to leading analysts, has historically preceded the formation of price lows. Such a level of metric alignment is an event that occurs only at moments of complete coincidence of fundamental signs of an asset being undervalued.
Dominance of "Bottom" Metrics
The vast majority of tools are currently in the "Bottom" phase. The adjusted MVRV ratio (market value to realized value) is recorded at 19. This means the current market price has nearly equaled the average price of all previously moved coins. Nearby are the Balanced Price at 20 and the Delta Price at 12 — fair value models below which the asset has historically been considered oversold.
The MVRV Z-Score has dropped to 6, indicating a statistically significant deviation from the average purchase price of all coins on the network. Also classified as bottom are the long-term MVRV supply (10), the base MVRV ratio (19), and the Realized Price at 19. The latter reflects the average acquisition price of all existing BTC.
Extreme values deserve special attention. The Percentage Supply in Profit and Percentage UTXOs in Profit have fallen to zero. This indicates that the vast majority of coins are near the breakeven zone, a classic sign of capitulation by short-term speculators.
Bearish Tail and Monthly Dynamics
Nevertheless, three indicators remain in the bearish phase. These are the LTS NUPL (unrealized profit/loss of long-term holders) at 33, the Market Cap to Thermocap Ratio at 39, and the overall NUPL at 37. These metrics suggest that "old money" has not yet fully transitioned into a loss state, leaving room for maneuver.
The 30-day dynamics confirm the trend of sliding toward the bottom. The largest decline was shown by LTS NUPL (-3 points), as well as NUPL and the Thermocap ratio (-2 points each). However, some short-term metrics are rising: the realized price of short-term supply (STS) and short-term MVRV each gained 3 points, while STS NUPL showed the most notable jump — by 9 points.
My analysis: The coincidence of 14 out of 17 indicators in the bottom phase is a powerful bullish signal of a fundamental nature. However, the presence of three bearish metrics, especially from long-term holders, suggests that the market has not yet completed a full capitulation cycle. We are likely in an accumulation zone, where a final "bear trap" could shake out remaining holders before the start of a sustained upward trend. A further decline in LTS NUPL to zero will serve as a trigger for a reversal.