Bitcoin risks becoming the main victim of a potential reversal in the US stock market. This conclusion is drawn from observations by several analysts, published independently of each other around US Independence Day on July 4.
Each author examines their own segment of the market, but together their findings form a chain: from the century-long cycle of the stock market, through record capital inflows into US stocks, to Bitcoin's dependence on their dynamics. The overall picture is this: the US securities market is in a late but not yet final growth phase, and BTC finds itself hostage to this movement.
The Century-Long Stock Market Cycle
Analyst Thierry Borges wrote about the long-term market cycle. According to him, the S&P 500 has repeated the same pattern for a hundred years: a technology boom lasting about 24–25 years, followed by a decade of stagnation.
The researcher provided historical examples. The electronics and automation boom starting in 1942 lasted 24 years and yielded a gain of 2536%, followed by nine years of sideways movement. The PC and internet boom starting in 1975 lasted 25 years and brought 2665%, again followed by nine years of stagnation.
The current cycle, which began in 2009 with smartphones, e-commerce, and now AI, would logically end around 2033. According to the analyst, the bull market has about seven years left, but the steepest part of the growth has always come at the end, and such markets die not from old age but from euphoria.
Record Capital Inflow into US Stocks
Analytical firm The Kobeissi Letter reported on current demand for stocks. According to its data, foreign investors are pouring into US stocks at record rates.
The cumulative inflow from global investment funds since the start of the year has reached about 2.5% of their total assets under management. This figure has more than doubled since May and significantly exceeds the average level for 2002–2025, when an outflow of about 0.3% was recorded by this date.
According to the firm, the current year-to-date inflow rate has already exceeded the full-year result typical for the average half of years since 2002. Experts described the demand for US stocks as unprecedented.
Bitcoin as a Hostage of the Stock Market
Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone stated Bitcoin's dependence on stocks. According to him, the resilience of all commodity and crypto assets directly depends on whether US securities continue to rise.
McGlone warned that if the stock market does not hold above current levels, Bitcoin is more likely to be closer to $10,000, gold will retreat to $3,000 per ounce, and WTI oil will fall below $50 per barrel. He noted that over the year to July 4, the combined return of the S&P 500, gold, and copper rose by about 21–25%.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has already acted as a lagging asset. According to the analyst, over the year to this date, it lost about 40%, while oil remained roughly flat. This shows that the cryptocurrency is weakening even against the backdrop of a strong stock market.
If these observations are combined, a general logic for Bitcoin emerges. Provided that the cycle described by Borges has entered a late euphoric phase, and the capital inflow into stocks recorded by The Kobeissi Letter supports growth, in the short term Bitcoin could move upward in tandem with stocks.
According to McGlone's forecast logic, any reversal in the stock market will hit the cryptocurrency the hardest—and Bitcoin's current underperformance makes it particularly vulnerable at the first sign of a sentiment shift.
My comment as an analyst: The market is at a bifurcation point. If the S&P 500 continues its rally on the wave of AI euphoria, BTC may temporarily catch up, but the fundamental weakness of the cryptocurrency relative to traditional assets is obvious. Investors should prepare for a scenario where Bitcoin loses its "digital gold" status and becomes a high-risk speculative instrument, strongly correlated with the stock market. The $10,000 level is not fantasy but a realistic scenario in the event of the first serious pullback.